Matched betting vs Gambling
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I have a spreadsheet detailing pretty much everything to do with my matched betting.
I noticed something interesting yesterday.I have made a profit of £1609.81 since I started back in October.
However I have made a lot of profit from bookies and am well down at the exchanges.So I calculated how much profit I would have if I had never laid a bet and the total is £4041.47!!!!
Now that is quite a difference!
Considering that gambling is considered to lose money in the long run I can’t get my head around the fact I could have made £4k in 3 months.
Obviously I’m not going to quit laying as I want to make a guaranteed profit. But I thought it was quite interesting.
Can anyone else calculate the same figures from your records?
The unluckiest bookie on my list is Bet365 who I have taken £1100 from!
+0January 7, 2016 at 1:31 pm
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Well James youre certainly right about the upsets. Theres been a few. I think I had money on Stoke when they beat Man City for instance.
I’m not going to change what I do as I know I could lose money fairly quickly. However I do think it would be worth not laying some of the enhanced offers when the bets have a good chance of winning.
+0You’ve inadvertently adopted the shrewdies’ mindset of swimming against the tide. If you want to lose money, go with the swathes of mugs who do their bollocks betting on short odds Premier League teams every weekend. Bookies would be broke if the favourites consistently won, and you’re taking value bets without realising it! 🙂
Obviously it’s tricky to avoid picking 12/1 horses which then steam to 4s and destroy the field if you don’t really know much about nags – the best policy for me is to stick to slightly shorter odds, take (marginally) less profit from freebie but massively reduce exchange liability. Wait till a few minutes before post and you can catch some favourable price movements and make just as much or more from 5/1 b2l as 10/1s. And avoid long races with few runners, these races are more likely to yield upsets, especially over jumps.
+0I put £3 on Wigan to win and BTTS at enhanced 5.0. Betfair didn’t have the lay market. At 2-0 to Gillingham I thought it was game over. Final score 3-2. £12 profit 🙂
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I had Gillingham to win @3.95 with my netbet £25 free bet…2-0 up could have laid for £65 guaranteed profit (I didn’t) who said laying wasn’t a good idea ey…
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Defo agree with you Ice Magic, if choosing ym own losers I get some many winners, I get what people are saying about variance but as a long term punter over the years I never hit so many ‘winners’
Dash has a point about betting low odds to transfer money, but I’d incorporate a martingale system into this. If you could back the top sides in Europe over the weekend as so many mug do week-in week-out you’d be quick moving money.
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Lol. Stop advocating a martingale system. Literally a ridiculous suggestion.
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It’s a laid martingale system Mark. So there’s no risk at all. I’d never advocate it as a bettor. Learned the hard way years ago and am familiar with the infamous Monte Carlo 26 story of 1 unfortunate gambler all those years ago.
However, for transferring money between accounts, a / BACK /LAYING martingale system always does the job.
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Please enlighten me…
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anyone wanting a mug bet currently Wills hills Exeter 7.5 on exchange 6.8
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Already got on that exeter with multiple accounts and draw is 5 and 4.7 with betfred
+0This answer from the other thread I’ve started about this was great:
“There’s a very simple reason why I always lay off my bets: I have to keep my emotions out of the game if I want to make money. It’s that simple. In the past I have messed around with overlaying, underlaying, mugging etc.. and it’s all had the same result: I have eventually lost money because my emotions have got the better of me.
Not laying off your bets might lead to some good ‘wins’ but what happens when you hit a losing streak? You get wiped out, unless you have nerves of steel and a massive bankroll.”
I’ve read a good bit about the subject on MSE and the consensus is that you would need balls of steel and a massive float to stomach the losing streaks (variance). Theoretically doing the exact same thing as in matched betting but not laying is EV+ in comparison. Our brains would want to go with what we think is more likely outcome and not the closest odds.
One would need a float of tens of thousands to be able to bet at the same stakes as with matched betting. With matched betting you can pretty much stake your whole float on all sides cause your guaranteed to win. Without laying you wouldn’t be able to bet more than 1% (or maybe less?) of your float to minimize the risk of wiping out.
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@dekoder I think this is more or less spot on with regards to not laying enhanced offers. It can be difficult to overcome a losing streak, at least emotionally. I try to disregard the actual outcome of my individual bets and only summarise returns over a lengthier period… This certainly helps. In terms of placing the bets, I just think “Oh, there’s another £4.00 gained in EV”. For the larger free bets (£25 and £50) I always lay off, given that it’s not too difficult to extract 90%+ which makes it worthwhile by controlling risk.
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