Mental Blockage
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Someone please clarify – having a dumb moment.
Bolt to win 100m & 200m Yes – 1.64/1.71 NO – 2.42/2.58
Surely laying YES is the same as backing NO ?
I don’t get why these odds aren’t the same…
+0August 14, 2016 at 10:04 pm
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Laying 1.71 is roughly the same as backing 2.42, if that’s what you’re asking?
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God knows what I was asking ahaha
+0I see what you mean. Laying Yes and saying He will infact not win is the same as backing NO, he will not win. And it is, the reason the odds are different is because bookmakers make them, and bookmakers do not allow for laying on their websites, just backing. Therefore they set their probabilities accordingly and don’t care for the rest. so Yes 1.64 and No 2.42 is 61% to 41% (2% edge) probabilities he will win or not win. It’s betting exchanges that create these lay odds and therefore they need to be close to the original back odds. Also, if people trade on this, which majority of betex users do anyway, trading on Yes at 1.64 and 2.42 for the YES LAY, if lay is the same as NO 2.42, would be basically impossible and creates bit of a distortion where money goes.
Also worth noting, if you think He will not win, you will back at 2.42 for £100, loosing £100-Winning £142. And if you want to loose £100 on lay YES at odds of 1.71, you would be asking for £140 which creates liability of £99.90…so its basically the same and therefore the odds are actually very very very correct. Both ways put the same amount of liability into work.
I always found odds and probabilities a bit genius in the way they can work.
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At the risk of labouring the point:
1/1.71 = 0.585 = 58.5% chance of Yes.
Only two outcomes so that implies 41.5% = 0.415 chance of No.
1/0.415 = 2.41 corresponding odds for No.
Which roughly matches what was available on the exchange.
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