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Mug Betting Advice

  • Hi,

    I have read in Matt’s Strategy the section on Mug Betting, where he considers that placing mug bets is one way to make the matched bettor’s betting pattern appear more like that of a typical punter, to minimise the chances of gubbing, thereby sacrificing small amounts of money to keep the door open for matched betting profits for longer (I appreciate not all of you agree with this). There is advice that stakes for mug bets should be of similar amounts to matched bets, however, not much else to go on. I realise it is not an exact science, however, I would be grateful if those of you that do place mug bets have any advice on the following:

    1. How often to place mug bets – what ratio for every matched bet?

    2. What form the mug bets should take. In other words, should these bets be random selections that should also be layed (so in effect they would appear as poor-choice arbs with a moderate loss) or should these bets be placed on very low odds so there is as small a chance as possible of losing the stake or another type of bet?

    Cheers,
    TE

    +0
    The Enforcer
    0
    April 25, 2016 at 10:32 pm

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    Dave_Jones 7 May 5, 2016 at 3:13 pm

    I think the reason you have not had any replies is that no one actually knows what to tell you. I think (but I don’t know) that over say the last 6 months it has made very little difference to some books if you mug bet or not, they will still gub you.

    I’ve lost Paddies, Corals and Laddies and I mug betted on them all. I still mug bet on Hills Sky and Bet365 and so far these accounts have survived but for how much longer who knows.

    When I mug bet I always lay off, I also think however if you are mug betting but getting arbs or narbs then that may well cause you to get gubbed too.

    Don’t get too concerned about getting gubbed. There are lots of sign up offers out there, I know this site is mainly about making consistent money from the same books but in the current climate that is very difficult.

    +0
    The Enforcer 0 May 5, 2016 at 11:15 pm

    Thanks for your reply.

    I have been doing some extensive research since I posted and found some more detailed mug betting advice on other sites that came up through a google search, some of the advice is consistent, some is slightly contradictory, which I think adds credence to your opening point. My current take is that mug betting can’t do any harm (with laying off) or with small unmatched accumulator bets and it may at least extend some of the accounts.

    Maybe its being too greedy with the matching that’s the most important point for account longevity, particularly as it seems that accounts are scrutinised more closely when they are new. i.e. sticking to mainstream markets and not always plumping for the best arbs/narbs. In other words, better to make £50 a week for 5 years than £100 a week for 6 months.

    I have inadvertently followed the above principle by backing exactly the same odds on my first qualifier as I did for my first free bet. Ideally you’d want the first to be lower and the second to be higher, but I was restricting myself to a single mainstream market in both instances, so my options were limited. I was still within my target return of +70%, but hopefully an advantage is that the bets would look more muggy from the perspective of the bookie.

    Cheers,
    TE

    +0
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