Potential Earning
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I just encountered this site https://review.jamesrowney.com/?p=71 , saying “This article was written by one of our Platinum members, James Gwyther. James is a very advanced Matched Bettor who makes a full time income from Matched Betting. He’s decided to share his overall experiences on making a full time income of £5000+ a month from Matched Betting.”
Jame’s message of Mug Betting is in fact very practical & intelligent, means James doesn’t seem to be a person speaking hype.
My point is the income of £5000+ a month from Matched Betting.
Here we talk about £500 as a big challenge.
How high can it be? What’s the view / experience of the members here? I have not started the Matched Betting yet, and very curious about it.Looking forward to seeing any input.
George
+0May 14, 2016 at 5:10 pm
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
This is where matched betting sites are fairly deceiving.. “Make £x per month extra income”. In reality, your accounts won’t last longer than a year. £5,000 sustained monthly income from matched betting is impossible (unless you’re multi accounting). Bookies would be out of business. I think if I went back in time and had fresh accounts, I could make £10,000 in one month, using all inefficiencies on every site. But that’s it. All accounts would be fully restricted. On the other hand, there are plenty of other opportunities in betting markets to earn an income… For example, trading and value betting.
Regarding the article, it’s clear that they are attempting to drive business for their site – the bias is obvious.
+0Hi Mark,
Thanks for your input.
So, don’t you believe the Mug Betting tactics works more than a year? From my newbie’s perspective, as long as we follow what the article describes carefully, our accounts should be seen as just ordinary recreational punter with decent positive earnings. I used to read somewhere that only 5% punter can make constant profit (like FX trading), and we could be part of it. Or, do bookies basically close all the 5% successful punters’ accounts? Besides, all our bookies’ accounts may not necessarily produce profit from Matched Betting every month because we earn in Exchanges as well, and given the fact that the earnings will be spread out among many bookies the profit in each bookmaker would be quite small, I guess at least small enough for the bookmaker to close the account.
When it comes to £5000, yes I agree that it’s too much and the whole industry can’t survive with it unless they stop promotion. What I would like to see is a bit of mathematical approach, say;
(1) How many bookies can we sign up (including offshore)
(2) How many or % of bookies out of (1) provide promotional offer (after sign-up offer)
(3) Average number of the promotion per (2) bookie per month
(4) Average earning £ per promotion with Matched Betting
So, the potential Gross Earnings (GA) could be (1) x (2)% x (3) x (4)£, correct?
Then, we can also estimate the cost of Mug Betting (C) by number of standard (means using matched betting) mug betting x average loss per betting + number of risky betting such as accas / casino etc x average loss per activity
Then Net Earnings (NE) = (GA) – (C)
We can also project working hours based on the above activities, then productivity of Matched Betting for long-term can be calculated.
Yes, I know all are the theoretical numbers and the reality will differ, but I believe it’s a good starting point to consider if this opportunity is really worth.Appreciate your thought & input.
George
+0George you are over complicating it.
The offers change daily but at the moment good offers are few on the ground. Making £5,000 a month last October/November was possible as many offers to be taken up and William Hill were doing a lot of offers where as previously they were not big on promotions.
The benefit of mug betting is debatable in my view.If you do a lot of offers the gubbing stick will hit you eventually.
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A detailed approach is certainly useful, particularly when keeping records of your bets. I have details of all bets I have ever placed (including net positions on bookmakers etc.). However, I don’t think you can generalise offers in the way you want to.
Taking bad value bets in the hope of blending in with recreational punters may work for a while. Regardless, as Patrick has mentioned, if you continuously abuse offers then you will be restricted/banned. Just to reiterate, I do think it prolongs the life of your account, but matched betting sites are guilty of overplaying this. They also falsely overplay the idea that you will have a continuous income for many months. There are tens of thousands of people partaking in matched betting and it has become clear that the life of accounts is shortening.
Ultimately, betting is a zero-sum game and matched betting relies on taking value from offers. It is in the interest of bookmakers to restrict bonus abusers, so they will continue to do this. The one thing which isn’t clear is how results-oriented they are… If you took a ton of value from them, yet all your bets lost, would they ban you? In my experience, the answer is yes. I have massively negative net positions with a couple of bookies who restricted me (they were certainly aware that I would beat them in the long-run).
One last point regarding your comparison with financial market traders… Of course, you don’t see stock/FX traders being banned by their brokers – their interests are aligned (at least sometimes(!), but that’s another story). Matched bettors are only profitable because they extract value from offers and bonuses (and occasionally good value odds). This is at the expense of the bookmaker, and therefore they actively ban profitable punters. If you want to profit from betting in the long-run then your only option is to bet on exchanges or potentially on the high-street.
+0Thanks for your comments.
OK, what shocks me is that even massive Mug betting doesn’t seem to work as I originally anticipated since as long as we keep exploiting the bookies’ offer the restriction may come sooner or later, and I suppose the speed of the restriction must vary largely among bookies. That’s one of the reasons the generalization must not be applicable for this case.
Yes, I agree that this is Zero Sum game so as global FX market. What the FX broker Mark defines are so-called ECN / STP brokers that are just intermediary but MM (Market Maker) broker has its own DD (dealing Desk) that creates conflict of interest with traders, exactly the same circumstance as bookmakers, thus they do more or less similar action although they are not significant as betting industry.Anyhow, it’s good to learn the limitation of this opportunity.
George
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Lol. No idea what brokers you’re using… But it’s certainly unethical for a broker to have a conflict of interest with their clients. Most institutions have a Chinese Wall, do they not? Anyway, that’s off-topic.
+1
Just to add before you respond: I do realise that brokers may take the other side of trades, yet normally don’t admit it (heard plenty of stories of price adjustments to suit the broker).
There’s another thread thread in the “matched betting” forum at the moment – it might give you a better insight from other bettors on getting restricted so easily.
+0Yes, correct. Here comes the application of reality rather than theory. Chinese wall is merely figurative term especially for small MM FX brokers. You may often encounter order rejected / re-quoted etc, which is a typical way to protect their business from sharp traders, yes it’s obviously unethical in financial industry.
I also read the relevant Matched Betting thread. Good to confirm the limitation and develop a suitable strategy accordingly.
+0
Interesting.
For what it’s worth, I think it’s optimal to go all out from the beginning. As you begin to mug bet and tackle the smaller offers, your return significantly decreases. A misleading thing on this site is actually the profit on the main page. The £12,000 figure has been accumulated over the past 24+ months. That’s definitely achievable in a month if you’re efficient and choose the best time (i.e. during a festival or major tournament). Good luck!
+0@Georger if you are thinking of joining one of the subscription sites there is a thread over on the MSE match betting forum titled “PA vs Oddsmonkey mk2”, James Gwythers name comes up one or twice in it (its on the third page).
If you are going to do it all yourself (which I would recommend) then no point reading the thread I just mentioned.
+0Thanks,
lastly, regarding your comment of “That’s definitely achievable in a month if you’re efficient and choose the best time (i.e. during a festival or major tournament).”, how many bookmakers are used as the basis for it? just enlighten me for my information.+0Hi Dave,
can you kindly share the link for that thread?+0I’m not sure what the policy here is on links to other forums, so just navigate to the money saving expert forum and you will easily be able to find it.
+0Hi Dave,
Thanks, Yes, I found and just skimmed it.
Someone mentioned “James used to brag about having 10 sets of accounts, and raking in £20k per month. He now creates guides on keeping accounts open. Hes only been gubbed by 3 bookies. The folk there look up to him like some sort of saint, without realising all the ‘mug’ betting he is advising is done in vain as he just moves on to the next set of accounts “, not encouraging.Anyhow, I don’t have any plan to use Profit Accumulator but saw a lot of positive reputation about Profit Maximiser by Mike Cruickshank.
Would anyone have experience of this programme and any honest opinion on it?George
+0Georger,if he was really making that per month from 10 accounts why would he be selling a subscription service advising how to do it.
He wouldnt need to
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