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Risk free theory

  • I have read and understand the basics of the risk free strategy.
    My question is about the cash back formula.

    Im using the example given on this site so £25 @ 7.5 and lay odds @ 7.8.
    The normal way we lose 40% no matter who wins.
    My thinking is that if we put in the cashback at £25 we stand to make £20.89 (or 20.47 after commission) if the bookie wins.
    If the exchange in we start off £4.11 down but then make a qualifying bet with our £25 cash back (using the same odds but on different mode) we then only lose £1.38 to claim our money. So a total profit of £19.51.

    Why is it so important to enter 80% into the cashback field.
    Would love to hear from you and will happily be proved wrong.

    +0
    Tomfromdablock
    0
    September 3, 2016 at 10:14 pm

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    Tomfromdablock 0 September 3, 2016 at 10:52 pm

    Using risk free calc Totals
    Bookie = -25 @7.5 (return 187.5) -25
    exchange= lay 20.89 @ 7.8 -142.05 liability -167.50
    bookie win= +187.5 +20

    now assuming lay wins -167.50
    + 20.89 – 1.05 (com) +142.05 = 161.89 -5.61

    Then we have a £25 refund and we do a free bet.
    -0 free £25 @7.5 SNR (return = 162.50) -5.61
    lay 20.89 @ 7.8 liability – 142.05 -147.66

    Bookie wins = -147.66 + 162.50 +14.85 or
    Ex wins = -147.66 + 142.05 + (20.89- 1.05) +14.23

    I did confuse the commission on these numbers using 2% on the betting calculator and 5% on my real calculator so the numbers are off by a couple of pennys. but it seems like i higher chance to make £20 by betting on higher odds i have only a 1/6 chance of making only £14.50 ish

    +0
    Tomfromdablock 0 September 3, 2016 at 10:58 pm

    My last post was meant to have all the last numbers on the line pushed away under the totals heading, but the page seems to have not liked that and pushed them back together. But if your confused the last number on the line is how much we are up or down after placing the bets. -25, -167.50, +20, -167.50(different outcome),-5.61,-5.61,-147.66,+14.85,+14.23.
    These numbers are running totals for every deposit and liability starting from 0

    +0
    deathstar 25 September 4, 2016 at 7:38 am

    these offers are down to personal choice. The guide explains the way to guarantee a profit no matter what happens and the 80% is to ensure that the profits are equal whether the bet wins or loses. of course you could add more or less to this percentage but that will result in more or less profit depending on whether the bet wins or loses. have a look into underlaying, but its basically a gamble if you are trying to get more profit from one outcome rather than equalising the profit on both sides. Nothing wrong with that of course, but you can’t force more profit than is actually there.

    The other way to tackle these is to just back and lay at close odds and hope it loses. But if it does win you will be down the qualifying loss without a freebie to come.

    Personally, The way I do these offers depends on who the bookie is. If the bookie seems to have a lot of ongoing offers I would do it the second way because it would be worth having the bookie anyway and you can still make money out of them. If they don’t seem to have much going on I will try and guarantee profit.
    HTH

    +0
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