Sky Bet-Price Boost.
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Spurs/Stoke/Southampton 7/5.9
+0December 3, 2016 at 6:38 am
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ok Mark, your point in general is fine. However, from memory I think you’ve picked a poor example (probably someone will correct me).
Regarding Liverpool. Bournemouth 4 – 3 Liverpool!.
+0Sky’s football price boost today looks good value to me! Tempted to not lay at all
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Go on then, Cameron. Sky really wants us to win with their boosts.
Stick the £5 FB on it if you still have one. Will at least save time looking for crappy extraction.
Best of – will probably win just to prove me wrong, lol.
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The value is only ever in punting something like £10 on these but as its been mentioned, rarely do they come in. Barcelona have qualified as group winners, Arsenal have qualified and never care about topping the group and are away from home so thats why they’ve been stuck in the treble. Its more than likely to lose.
Personally wont be going for it this time.
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Yep that’s what he means sleepless.
Last time it won seems to have been August so you would have lost £250+ doing it Mark’s way since then waiting for it to come in again. But you can’t be results oriented. It’s about the value.
For example – (using Mark’s figures)
1. This week you can back and lay £25 at 5.5/4.9 for a guaranteed profit +£1.93.
2. Back £25 @ 5.5 and you are either -£25 or +£112.50. The true odds 4.2 means about 23.8% (=1/4.2) probability you are up £112.50. So in the long run you expect to win 23.8% and lose 76.2% of bets like this and if you do the maths that leaves you with an expected profit of +£7.74 per week which is more than treble what you are taking for guaranteed profit.
Of course with method 2 you could actually find yourself £25 down per week, but if you have a big enough bank roll and if you are putting on enough bets across the board then you would expect the good luck and bad luck to even out quite nicely to the true expectation and take in higher profits – buts its obviously a choice, not everyone will be happy to or in a position to risk trickling £250 out of their Sky Bet account over a couple of months…. And in that case you pay the extra in commission and a small wedge of the value back to the traders for insurance….
Mark, lots of ppl pay insurance on lots of different things. Its not really amusing to be honest. It’s a fair choice.
It may also be a legitimate concern that Sky have some expertise in book making and can very carefully pick the odds that are too low and boost these. So they are not really in fact giving value but just creating the illusion that they are. They know how to pick them. Although with this theory I have no explanation on why the exchange would be so off with their odds 😉
In any case it’s all a bit moot. Because by doing the boosts you will soon have stakes restricted (just happened to me) and its probably not worth it. You would make more profit from your sky bet account by e/w arbing or betting on not to place arbs or Mark had a cute tip for the US racing before where he claimed he could make £1000 or something over a couple weekends due to how slow their odds update close to the off.
I have probably profited €1000 out of Sky Bet in total – doing their offers from July 2015 to Mar 2016 before being gubbed and then doing boosts from Mar 2016 to Dec 2016 before being restricted to a couple of euro per bet. Sky Bet account better used for e/w arbs? arbing? Discuss.
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Hardly a boost either. Sticking the same three teams in a treble at Bet365 gives you 5.30.
Kind of like the William Hill trebles, people love them because its a nicely packaged deal on the front page with the word “boost” next to it but if you shop around and create your own, you’ll realise that a) its not really that much of a boost and b) you could probably get better odds at other bookies.
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The same three teams gives you 4.0 in a treble on Bet365?
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Hey Chris mate sorry for not writing on the topic promise to be an active user and a pal of yous all soon, seen you active on the forum quite a lot and got some questions in particular to you, is there any way I can contact you and have a short chat? Twitter, skype anything else please drop it here promise to not waste your time lad haha cheers
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Hi Tony.
Will respectively decline the request for private off board convos but if its questions on matched betting (I assume so) then you can post it up in the newbies section and I’ll reply.
+0I would never not lay their price boost, the traders over at Sky know what their doing and are on for a massive Christmas bonus.
As for using your FB on it, not sure the traders will like it if you do this every week. A better strategy for your free bet is to open a free account with Oddsmonkey and use this link to see their delayed (10 mins) live odds checker feed.
https://www.oddsmonkey.com/Tools/Oddsmatcher.
IMO there is value in this in terms of time invested/profit made. 1 minute to back and lay boost. 2 minutes to find, back and lay a market for your 5£FB. 3 minutes work for £5.93 work would=£118.60PH ? I would almost swap my imaginareeingb job at Disney for that salary ?
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Total nonsense. As the odds currently stand, Sky are offering 5.5 on what should be roughly 4.4. That represents an expected ROI of 24.7%.
Firstly, there’s no way Sky can beat Champions League markets by that much (or at all). The markets are amongst the most efficient and highly liquid in betting markets. There are 10s of millions bet on these games worldwide, which filters through to pricing efficiency on the exchange.
Secondly, if they had an edge, it would be far more profitable to lay at the current odds for the individual legs rather than give away 24.7% for free. The boost is nothing more than an offer for Sky customers. It is essentially promotional spending.
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Couple of points…
The trend of historic results has absolutely no bearing on whether the next one will come in or not. Common case of gambler’s fallacy.
Any given boost either IS value or is NOT value – the level of stake that you are prepared to back it for is irrelevant. In fact, if you perceive tonight’s offering of 5.5 to be “value” then you would be making the incorrect choice not to back it for the maximum. Results-orientated thinking = bad. I obviously realise that some prefer not to be the bitch of variance, and therefore opt to lay which is absolutely fine, but if you are having a discussion about exploitative strategies and maximising EV then backing and not laying is the right choice, as our much esteemed Peep Show part time contributor has said.
Finally, to those saying these boosts are all they can find to use up free bets at Sky, there are an absolute plethora of other options to be had amongst their many many yellow box boosts on various markets. You need not “waste” the value of tonight’s 5.5 offering on mere £5 free bet stakes.
Oh – and why can multiple users on here have the same username, @matt?
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Tony. Definition of madness – doing same thing over and over again and expecting different result.
Orlando – think 3 mins is a bit optimistic, but like you, to my mind time is an important factor here. BTW have you come over to UK for some decent weather?.
Mark – you’ve been away for a while, have come back and caused a right stir (or kerfuffle as your alter ego may say)
You can tell it’s a quite day!
+0Here for Xmas, to be honest I like the cold, the constant heat becomes tiresome in Orlando.
+0Sky are fully aware they’re offering good value and are reducing their liability on the exchange innit.
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