Sky Bet-Price Boost.
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Spurs/Stoke/Southampton 7/5.9
+0December 3, 2016 at 6:38 am
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inb4 tonight’s 22% shot doesn’t come in and everyone thinks sky are geniuses
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inb4 people think we’re the same person
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inb4 ppl dont care if you are the same person or not and dont lose sleep thinking about it.
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You two are definitely not the same person.
+0I am the same person as Matchdem ?
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Titanbet have PSG, Man City and Barcelona boosted to 5.50.
Better value there with all three at home, and without a boost the odds are around 3.18.
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BetmcLean have Bayern, Arsenal and City boosted to 6/1 (7.0).
Again a dodgy one because none of them have much incentive to win (Arsenal “may” want to top the group to avoid Barca but top could also end up being drawn with Bayern or Real) – but going by the odds on the exchange (combined 5.09) then pretty good value to be had there. Also dodgy because I can’t spot the lay on the acca on betfair.
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But it is a matched betting forum so by definition people lay.
Blindly laying stuff will guarantee profit if done correctly, but maybe not as much as adjusting for value (given risk v variance element)
Blindly not laying stuff because you perceive it value as the odds exceed the exchange is a gamble and likely to lose money. Now I’m not against value betting but there’s a lot to that. I hate to sound like matchedem but it’s fact the exchanges and markets are not 100% accurate and it’s fact the bookies pay people to lure people with these ‘boosts’ in that instance.
To leap onto Tony’s point you need to identify the ones that are value – although I doubt any of us are 100% experts so it makes sense to maximise the offers and adjust the lay to your own view.I can see a backlash to the markets not being accurate point so think how much odds change in the build up to a game/race and even early in a game/race when there hasn’t been a significant event (goal, faller etc) to shift that.
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Who cares? Just have fun and spunk a tenner here and there.
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So anyone else spunk a tenner on this because its looking good right now for a change? Laying it off if City are winning by half time because they look real dodgy at the back again.
+0I don’t get how this thread his spiralled into what it has. If you’re doing the Sky boosts, either underlay or lay. 99% of the people here are for matched betting – its all well and good talking about value, but it’s clearly not really the most suitable option for most of us on here.
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That may be true but it doesn’t preclude discussions about value, does it?
And let’s not play the ‘it has to be risk free or we shouldn’t talk about it’ game… may as well head over to the MSE forum if that’s what you’re after 😉
I am being flippant of course and I understand where you are coming from. Perhaps we need a new subforum for all things NOT “matched betting”?
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PS – yes Chris, I have £18.75 (my max allowed) on it as a punt too. Feels a little precarious given the HT scores and the way City are playing (judging by the text updates I am following) but I’ll be letting it ride after a great weekend/decent start to the week elsewhere 😉
You watch, it’ll still be Arsenal the f*ck it up for us! Haha ?
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If you cant afford yourself a tenner on a value punt then you’re not doing matched betting very well anyway 😛
Ha Tony yeah. I havent layed, may even go with the cashout option if City score. You would think they’ll bring on some of the big guns second half.
+0I get where you’re coming from, but I feel like always plenty of discussion in the Match Betting forum itself with threads that are about that sort of stuff.
It was mostly aimed at MC’s post where he said “Always amuses me when people lay the sky boost.” and “It’s of course fine to lay off your sky odds if you don’t like variance, but certainly don’t go laying these thinking it’s profitable in the long run.”.. Just a bit holier than thou type thing. Most of us aren’t in this for any kind of long term, we’re not professional gamblers or such. It’s stupid as well, because it’s clearly incorrect. If I had backed all their boosts since I started matched betting, I’d have made a loss, so it seems a weird post to proclaim such a thing on.
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