Stake sizing to stay 'under the radar'
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I’ve recently been arb betting and am wondering what is the max stakes you can get away with before a bookie will take notice?
Would the liability come into play, as obviously £100 on a 2.0 is different to £100 on a 20/1.
The arb opportunities throughout the day are incredible but i dont want to increase my stakes too much and have a bookie restrict my stakes.
Thoughts?
On a side note, i cannot believe how many arb bets actually go on to ‘win’, im fairky certain it would be profitable to let them ride as back only bets, but perhaps this has just been variance in the short term of things.
+0November 6, 2016 at 9:19 pm
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It’s hard to say because to me the average mug bets similar amounts on each bets. E.g. Will always do 50 quid whatever he odds. I guess if something is 2/1 or less you could do a ton.
+0I assume you mean arbs on horses on the exchanges rather than other sporting arbs between bookies.
Arbs on the horses nearly always occur through dropping prices, so in theory you’re getting value and will long term win more at bookie than exchange. If that’s all you do you’ll also repeatedly be backing horses with lower SP’s and stick out that way regardless of stake+0
Even £20-£30 consistantly backing arbs will put you first on the one way train to gubbsville! You are right what you say about many arbs go onto win…. basically you are taking the value bet and usually end up in profit with the bookies rather than exchanges… eg my email from smarkets says im £2700 down in last 30 days! In nearly all my bookie accounts, i was thousands up but still carried on laying although most i underlay now to break even if lose win big if win!
Ew arbing keeps you under rader ive found… the best ew arbing to keep you clean are 16 runner h’cap… bookies dont treat these as bad ew races but loads of ew arb ops in these if you react to the market quick enough!
Good luck!+0Thanks for the input, will look to stick to the same stake size regardless of price to appear as a mug punter.
Since posting ive been surprised to see two arbs drift right out just before the off, both came 2nd though :). One was laid at 3.45 and went off with an SP of 4/1! Would have been a great return with BOG.
i will keep going, keep my stakes low and see how much profit i can get.
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I got gubbed by Stan James the other day.I did 3 arb bets,2 x £25 and a £50.All won damn! The email came soon after!!
I only started using SJ again about 2 weeks ago oddly enough after joining Oddstrawler lol+0Biscuit, can you not still do arbs with them then, or have they restricted your stakes by too much?
+0SJ was my first ever gubbing, before I even started matched betting? I’d probably only ever made a couple of bets with them, smallish, normal muggy stakes. Baffled as to how they have any active customers.
And these ‘smaller’ bookies, what the hell do they expect? Most people are probably only going to use them for their offers, us and mugs alike. Even if people only take up their offers, surely people are losing money for the most part anyway.
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I think they closed my account completely Johnbo!
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They didnt even wait for my 2 horses to run. Said they were closing my account but didnt cancel the bets just let them run and send me my final balance. My advice now though is put as much as you can on for as long as you can. Your gonna get gubbed anyway so make the most of it. Interestingly one bookie im gubbed on let me put £615 on a horse @ 7/4 yesterday. Would have been nice if i hadnt laid it.
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Blimey £615! Was it for a small arb or something?
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