Tackling the 0-0 stake back offer…
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So I have money locked in bookmaker so thought I’d try learn how to do this offer.
“Place at least a single bet on the FT pre-match correct score or HT/FT on any football match.
If the match ends in 0-0, we will refund your losing FT pre-match bet of up to £50”I’m using the IF spreadsheet.
Stake £25
Back odds 11 (correct score 1-0)
Lay odds 13 (against corect score 1-0)
Commission 2%Refund selection
Lay 18.00 (against 0-0)
Problem is I’m getting a lot of minus figures. Is there a secret recipe or am I doing something wrong?
+0August 23, 2016 at 5:06 pm
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What is the IF spreadsheet?
At the quoted odds and commission , you would make a qualifying loss of £4.24 in the hope of a goalless draw and a £25 free bet that you would (probably) earn £20 from. Your net profit would therefore be £20 – £4.24 = £15.76
From memory there is about a 10% chance of an average game ending goalless, so 10% of the time you make £15.76 and 90% of the time you lose £4.24, which obviously makes this unprofitable in the long term 🙁
Now, if you could find closer odds then that will change things and might make it worthwhile, although I imagine it is unlikley
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Used to do this myself quite a lot pebblehead.
As tony has pointed out for starters you qualifying loss is far too big, you need to reduce this. I used to do this offer with William Hill mainly, I found on the bigger games you could sometimes find some great matches and have qualifying losses of below £1.
This would then give you effective odds of 0-0 massively above the actual odds which made it profitable. Had quite a lot of success myself, it also made the games that extra bit exciting. You can also lock in a small profit at half time if its still 0-0 (but whats the fun in that!)
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The IF spreadsheet is same as in this youtube video – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC1li4ThRWM
It’s basically backing/laying the qualifier (correct score)
Then laying against the offer. In this case 0-0…I’m playing around with it at the moment. I think it’s best used when the offer is if game finishes a draw rather that 0-0…Gives you more scope the draw rather than the precise 0-0 happening..
Hmmm I might swerve this on…
+0The issue is that there is too big a gap between your back and lay odds giving too big a qualifying loss. You need tighter odds.
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Been playing around with this on calculator and it doesn’t work no matter what the odds unless you want to gamble for a small lose if the back/lay are tight as RyanB above explained…
It works if there’s more scope i,e game finished a draw stake back, so then you can underlay qualifying lay with back bet to break even, hope game finishes a draw….So now I’m on the hunt for this type of offer if anyone knows one please post…Especially for Celtic game tonight cus I’ve a hunch it’s got 0-0 written all over it…
I suppose you gotta keep trying in order to learn. And by darnnn I believe I’ve learned something here…
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Lets say for example using fictional odds you back a team to win 1-0 7.5 & lay odds 7.5 (rare but happens) if you stake £50 you will have made a loss of 87p.
Lets also say the lay odds for 0-0 are at 11.
You could lay £3.65 @11 liability of £36.50. Therefore the following:
If its 0-0 £50 free bet – lets say £40 extraction – £36.50 liability – 87p initial loss = £2.63
Not 0-0 £3.65 *.98 = £3.57 – 87p = £2.70Therefore no matter what happens you would profit £2.70. However, from my experience you are much better off letting it ride out and risking 87p for the full £50 free bet as overtime you will hit them 0-0s.
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Don’t understand where your getting that ,98 from in your post
“”Not 0-0 £3.65 *.98″”
Can’t believe your a Tranmere fan as well, I live literally over road from ground, small world…
I understand where your coming from tho…The 1-0 is the qualifying bet, taking small lose…Then basically laying the 0-0. But how did you calculate the £3.65 lay against 0-0? Suppose you could just rough guess it looking at liability against £50..
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Sorry Smarkets takes 2% commission on your winnings so you only get 98%.
Yeah that’s exactly right, and correct I just did trial an error till I was in the right ball mark so that if it was 0-0 or wasn’t you’d end up with similar profits. However, like I said by the time you find a good enough match as the one described above (can take time to find a close qualifier most games there are no good matches) its not worth laying for a small profit best going for the full £50 free bet.
Ah really, small world indeed! Go most home games to be honest!
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Thanks Ryan for your help.
I will explore the avenues until I find the shinning white light…
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