Underlay/Overlay or Neither

  • Hello,

    When should I underlay, overlay, or do neither? Was calculating expected profits of free bets using the matched betting calculator (assuming lay odds reflected probabilities), and the underlays and overlays always seemed to be less than that of the standard lay. Should I under or overlay when I think odds are wrong/not reflective of the true probabilities. I’m not sure, but I feel like the exchange markets are pretty accurate, and I wouldn’t bet against them?

    It would be good to get any ideas/stats on under or overlaying.

    Thanks

  • Matt
    Keymaster
    738

    Hi John,

    Yes, the exchange markets are a more accurate representation of odds than you’ll see at the bookmaker. The bookmakers need to factor in their profit margins, so the odds are usually shorter with the bookmakers.

    I would say it’s entirely up to you whether you underlay, overlay or opt for the standard lay. Most people prefer the standard lay to lock in as much profit as possible from a free bet. There’s nothing wrong with tweaking your lay stake, though, if you feel an event will go a particular way.

    You can use the slider on the Matched Betting Calculator to see how different lay stakes affect your overall profit.

    I hope that helps.

    +0
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