Using 'Best Price Guaranteed' to create a post match bet arb.
I had a punt on skybet’s ‘2nd place paid out as winner’ promo yesterday..
I backed (£10 max) @7.0 and layed @7.4 for around 90p loss.
I picked the winner, unfortunately, but instead of a 90p loss I ended up with almost a tenner profit because the starting price (SP) was 8.0 and skybet’s best price guarantee kicked in and settled me at 8.0 instead of 7.0
This sparked my interest…… how about identifying runners with very close back n lay odds for a small loss (or occasionally no loss at all) hope that the SP has drifted and lock in a risk free bet (more likely a very small risk bet)
One benefit of this method is that there will be no maximum stake limit because we wont be exploiting price boosts or enhancements which are often stake restricted. Using the example above but with a £100 stake instead of £10 would of turned a profit of over £90 although it must also be noted that a loss of around £9 is significant if the result went the wrong way! A straight £9 bet on the winner would return £72 so there is value to be gained but not as much as I first thought.
Ideally we would need to be finding tighter back n lay odds than the example above to create real value, preferably a no loss qualifier (occasionally available) for a genuine risk free bet.
I suppose the key factors are as follows.
1. Identifying runners that are likely to drift in price.
2. Can that runner be backed n layed at prices that will create significant value or a risk free punt
3. Does that runner have a reasonable chance of winning
Having actually wrote this which forced me to think it through in more detail and look harder at the numbers, I’m less optimistic that there will be a lot of opportunities to exploit this method but I’m submitting it anyways for you reprobates to mull over 😉
Any ideas on how to best identify likely price drifters would be a good place to start?
Any responses/input at all is welcome.
Be lucky son! ( <–employ your best Danny Dyer accent )