ACCA (again sorry!)
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Hi Guys,
First post in a while!Thought it was time I started on the Acca’s. I feel the best method for me personally is the Lay all at the start method, I presume the no lay method is probably more beneficial, however guess i’m just a wimp!
Result Bookmaker Exchange Your Profit
All win (24%) £68 -£40 £28
1 lose (40%) -£5 -£7.50 -£12.50
2 lose (26%) -£25 £25 £0
3 lose (9%) -£25 £57.50 £32.50
4 lose (1%) -£25 £90 £65
All lose (0.1%) -£25 £122.50 £97.50I found the above online, this is based off a £25 stake and back and lay odds of 1.3/1.32. I assume this is correct?
Any tips would be appreciated!
Thanks+0February 16, 2017 at 12:58 pm
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It’s not been very scientific so far, but betting on 8 or more corners and combining in 3, 4 or 5 acca has been better. The drawback with the corners is no refund if one leg fails, so this weekend I’ll be using oddsmonkey acca builder, offers with a free bet refund only, £5 stakes on all.
The match result accas have been poor since the 4th August when I started this trial as I’m looking for the teams with the lowest odds that fit the offer, the acca builder should help with that.
So far won £165.18, lost £105.70, profit £59.48, average stake £5, I’ll have to break the bets by match result, corners, number of bets in the acca for a better picture. I’ll do that this weekend, doing horse racing and setting up facebook ads today.
+0I’ll save you the time, that £59.48 is positive variance and likely to get wiped out if you carry on.
Unless the bookies are pricing the corners market wrong and you’ve statistically proven that then you don’t have an edge without the insurance and will lose out long runIf the corner market is priced wrong skip the accas and hammer the crap out of it!!!
Also you need to find close matches as well as low odds for the Acca offer. All very well a team being 1.1, but if it’s 1.25 on the exchange that’s not a good pick
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I’ve tried 8 or more corners and 9 or more corners, 8 or more is the best. For the last 2 premier league weekends just 2 (I think) matches had less than 8 corners, both were Liverpool. I might skip the corners this weekend.
The match result accas I’m not laying, but will be using oddsmonkey no lay acca builder. To be honest I can’t be bothered laying football accas, I’ll see if the builder picks better than me lol
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BKK, you are purely gambling. You’re not using any bookie offer or matched betting methods.
I’m just worried someone will get mixed up between the two. This thread is just about discussing acca insurance offers.
I would be interested in seeing your results, but keep it off the matched betting boards or offers boards – maybe general chit chat is the best place for it. I would also warn you like betman and dave jones have tried to say – you might be in for a costly lesson. By all means though keep us posted on your success/failure however it may go if you want.
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On page 18 there was discussion about no lay accas and I have used William Hill for most of my 5 fold match result accas. The corner accas are just skybet with no insurance, I was seeing how many of these come in or not. I don’t think I’ll bother to post any further updates!
+0The no lay accas we do use the insurance as our edge.
As you say you are not doing the insurance, so taking away the edge. Short term you may win (variance), long term you will lose without an edge (bookie Overround and how they profit)I like the way you’ve read the post, and are discussing ideas in the post- we’re just trying to help you save time and money that your current idea appears (on the face of it) to not be a sustainable one profit wise
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In any case it needs a new thread. This is about acca insurance, that’s all matched bettors talk about. Going in to no lay territory is already dodgy but we can prove the value using exchange lay odds. And still the option to lay up front.
I think with accas the lay method is actually quite risky if you’ve layed 3 legs and forget to lay the fourth which can easily happen then you can be exposed for big liabilities. Or if the 5th leg is postponed or cancelled. Or since they have to be sequential the fifth leg might be a couple of days down the road and the odds could drift terribly bad. The no lay method also is very risky but in a way not as risky, the worst that can happen is you lose your 25 stake. With lay and human error you could lose 100’s if you don’t track your accas right and don’t schedule your lays at the right time…
You are really talking about something else BKK. Some stats might help us understand where your edge comes from or even some logic on why the bookies might be mispricing the corners market? For example on markets like yellow cards, penalties I can almost see how you could get an edge on the bookies at the start of the season if you have a deep understanding of any new referee directives that might mean that cards and penalties are likely to be more frequent than historic data might suggest. Bookies probably basing their odds on historic data might underestimate some things like this. For example are they finally going to crack down on jersey tugging at corners? This could mean a LOT of penalties at the beginning of the season.
You’re method really needs a new thread. And I genuinely am interested in how it goes.
But here it’s only about acca insurance offers and to mix it up might confuse ppl into thinking that the value is in the acca and not the insurance offer.
In general there is no value in accas as the bookie overround accumulates on each leg like compound interest. So just blindly betting on singles you could be down 10% due to overround but blindly betting on 5 fold accas you might be down something like 30%. That’s why the bookies lovely them, they are taking a huge cut. That’s why last year almost every bookie under the sun had enticing offers on accas.
So that’s my opinion.
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I hadn’t thought about an edge, was merely having a bit of fun and seeing how the corners went. I have been looking at last seasons premier league averages for each team and how many corners they got, plus from this season too. This project is in it’s infancy lol
I’ll do 5 more accas with insurance this weekend and look at the stats afterwards. I’m only doing £5 stakes at present.
+0Variance is a funny old thing. On one hand dafabet has zoomed into my most profitable bookie for no lay accas in v short space of time, on the other Ladbrokes (which should have less variance with no min odds) has just this week drifted negative
I don’t have the total bet by bookie to know where they should be, but both way out+0
Haven’t tried Dafabet for accas yet, gubbed with Ladbrokes x3 and gubbed with Paddy Power x2, I guess if restricted no free bet with losing one leg accas?
I see what you mean by an “edge” now. I did 4 accas over the weekend, 2 with William Hill and 2 with Coral, both William Hills won and both Corals lost, the losing accas had one wrong result in each.
The oddsmonkey no lay builder looks ok to use, makes it a lot easier to find matches near minimum odds.
+0Yes BKK if your gubbed you don’t get the FB if one leg lets you down. As mentioned previously the profit comes from the insurance FB, without it you will lose money long term.
A few people possibly have the time, knowledge and data bases necessary to make a profit from accas without needing the FB. I would imagine there would not be many of them around though.
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I’ve got enough accounts left, I sign up 3 times with every bookie. I’m moving on to £10 stakes for a month now and write down the profit/loss. If I just use 4 or 5 match accas with willie hills and coral, August was, won 4 and lost 11, winnings £76.03, losses £32.50, profit £43.53.
+0If there’s no free bet though you the Acca wouldn’t be providing the profit.
You’d be getting an arb or edge on the single bet, only purpose of doing an acca would be to multiply or hide that arb/edge+0
William Hill is won 3 and lost 4, 2 free bet refunds and 2 no refunds, winnings £54.83, losses £18.00, profit £36.83.
Not doing corners anymore as no free bet if one leg loses. I’ll try some other bookies with free bet refunds for one result wrong. £10 stakes and then up to £20 stakes after another month.
+0Vernons is no minimum odds, cumulative odds of 5-1 though and 6 legs
Good for the old series of low odds with one high odds if u can find the higher odds match…. although obviously larger variance again so if u can isolate and lay the larger odds leg it might work better. Got a couple of high EV ones on with the internationals but struggling to find many more combinations+0
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