Bad EW Races NO CHAT

I also had 3 on 2.45 and didn’t hit the target , what are the odds of that happening , lol.
Wondering if the “ Breeders Cup” on Friday and a Saturday will throw anything up?? Enigma usually good at scoping the big foreign events for value. Scabb ??

Well guys, I’ve been furloughed again for a month so I can get back in the mix and hopefully help out!
Tried to get stuck in today but really didn’t see many arb opportunities but I will be eager eyed all month to try throw some value back!
Today – got on – No Risk @ 19 Unfortunately it drifted massively before I could cover anything. -£40
Roll On Thunder @ 23/20 – underlaid the place which didnt come in. £2.56
Sky Hill @ 6/5.4 – underlaid the win as only put £20 on the win (I’m all about the fun of watching ha!) £0.00
Cold Destination for £25 @ 3.5/2.9 – underlaid, steamed the win for £14.01
Old Gold @ 3.75 – saw it come into around 3.1 and was waiting for more of a steam, next time I look it had taken a massive drift! So let it run. -£20
Mines A Pint @ 19/26 – this one was another rusty mistake! Shouldn’t have panicked as I saw it drop to lay @ 19 just before off. Underlaid the place @ 4.6/4.4 and only got £5 matched 🙁 . -7.94
Crestwood to place @ 10/8.8 – saw this steam to around 7 on the exchange and got greedy and waited til race off when the drift hit, should have taken 7 earlier and overlaid! £0.00

So -51.37 for the day which does suck a bit. That said with a bit of luck on my side – Mines a Pint would have taken the 5th (having come 6th today) and Roll On Thunder would have taken 4th spot (come 5th today). This would have turned my day into a tidy profit.

So lessons to be learnt and a bit of luck to come my way – but it was good to get back in the frame as work has only allowed me time to matched bet and a touch of swing trading of late.

I hope to see more of you all over the next month!

3 05 curragh, autumn evening 5.5/4.8 365/bf

Change of tact going forward Scabba? Try to catch swings more than bad each ways?

Sorry Frank – I haven’t been here for weeks now. Usually I saw bad EW and the EPRs being posted on the NAPS page. Which to all intent and purposes is still happening in the main. But I have noticed, yesterday, Scabba has napped what he expects to steam in, irrespective of whether the race is an EPR or Bad EW. So identifying a horse at say 30/1 which is being backed heavy, good form, good stuff from stables etc would suggest this horse may steam in. A horse going from say 30/1 to 14/1 for example, would be a swing trade. If you were trading you would also look at the weight of money etc etc but I think Scabba now has some better/decent inside info on horses that will be fancied. I hope I made sense haha.

Cheers Deej/Frank- Just trying to add a bit more to the mix. Bookies are tighter than ever in general IMO atm- esp bad e/ways/Eprs. So I’m adding a bit more to the recipes like catching early horses that I think are overpriced (even if off in low liquid markets) mainly in BEWs/Eprs/hcaps still though- also catching some tight laying wins that I fancy (with BOG coming into the value mix) The more I study these races and my own little trading stratergies the more I feel better/more confident at reading form/market moves esp in value handicap races (not always right of course!) Going for solid big quantity over banker high quality low quantity these days on the nap stuff. As I believe high volume with solid returns is far better to followers/subs- than lower volume higher value naps (which are often only avaiable for a minute or two anyway- so often not that practicle to followers) Reading the markets early and getting in as many as poss before 10 is the best stratergy in my book even if most naps/scalps are a bit off/have little/no liquidity- as long as race normally has some e/w value and horse has a reason for perhaps being overpriced/steamable and have chances.

Sounds excellent Deej- nice to see you back for the Christmas/lockdown fund campaign!

Just saw the list of your scalps the other day (they were unlucky I had napped all of em! on here/Twitter. Better luck yesterday- will start posting up my own naps shortly (still struggling to adjust to being 3 hours earlier than UK where I am)