Bad EW Races NO CHAT

  • Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?

  • New to matched betting?

    My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

    Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

    ncfcmikey
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    Thanks a lot for the help today mate see what happens in an hour

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    deathstar 25

    not looking good for deduce…

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    ncfcmikey
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    Minute before the race: Backed at 21, lay odds 32 (lowest they got was 26), place price 5.6 (lowest it got was 4.2) 🙁 Fail of a first race

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    ncfcmikey
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    Laid in play for a £ 0.27 profit lmao

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    bbobb 21

    I cant help thinking the way to tackle these is to lay the win and let the place run…

    Made a small profit on both of these today.

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    deathstar 25

    yes shows the risks involved. i’ve noticed before that sometimes smarkets has the best price about 8 minutes out, then starts to rise again, whereas betfair doesn’t. i got 28/4.2 and lost £2.30 on my £25 e/w so bit of a fail here too.

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    deathstar 25

    i noticed deduce went out to 50/1 on betvic at one point, shame we didn’t get on that!

    bbobb, its deffo worth underlaying at the very least

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    ncfcmikey
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    I know bbobb, would have done the same but there was literally no price on smarkets when I put my bet on. Noticed it fell down to 16/1 10 mins before the race started so thought the odds would fall down a bit. Gonna review tomorrow’s races after dinner tonite and share what I see, just to confirm deathstar number of runners is completely irrelevant or do you have to stick to numbers like 8,9 or 16,17 runners? Because I saw a pretty good 13 runner race today.

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    ncfcmikey
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    Would be canny if beesty the GOD pops up with some advice lol

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    ncfcmikey
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    Think I picked the right time starting to learn this skill considering how dead hi5 and 2nd place refunds are nowadays

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    deathstar 25

    its all about the odds, if you see a likely horse in a race it might be worth taken it.
    BUT, the theory is this: in any race the bookies will price up as to who they think will win and those who will do well then put prices on the rest. because they only offer odds on a win and then just offer a percentage of that price to place, it throws up anomolies, whereas an exchange has a separate market specifically for places. So a horse may have absolutely no hope of winning, but may extremely likely to place. the bookie odds don’t reflect that, its all about the win.
    The reason it works on 8/9 runner races (or 16, 17, 18 runner races) WITH A STRONG FAVOURITE or two is because 8 (or 16) is where the cut off point is for the place terms. so they work because you are hitting the sweet spot between the minimum number of horses competing for the maximum number of places.
    Hope that makes sense.

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    ncfcmikey
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    How much do you reckon EW arbing has made you mate?

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    deathstar 25

    £1k a month fairly consistantly. on £210 this month already thanks to an extra place on saturday.

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    betman 40

    I did think about beesty when I saw this post. He commented previously about liquidity issues with the up rise of each way arbing making things harder for him. Someone wanting to be spoon-fed on their way to each way arbing 6k profits a month wouldn’t help that!!

    That said mikey does seem to be trying to turn the corner his alter ego Tony C couldn’t by trying to learn. And your begrudging pick at races was pretty decent and saved a couple mins off my lunch so cheers for that

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    ncfcmikey
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    Ok can someone explain who is Tony and why am i compared?!!!

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