Bet365 2up
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Hi, I just wondered how everyone was getting on with the Bet365 2up offer.
I’ve done it a few times now and I’m frequently having my team go two goals ahead. However, when they do, the back odds are then so small that it’s not been worth cashing out then and I’ve left it for the other team to pull back first. I’ve not had this 2nd part happen for me yet after several attempts.
I’m wondering how other people on the forum are doing with this, what their success rate is, how they find the matches, and just the general experience of this offer.
I’ve read elsewhere that this can be a good money maker, and as I mostly do football offers, I’d like to find out how true that is and hopefully get the right method down for starting to make a profit from this.
Any help or feedback would be greatly appreciated 🙂
+0August 27, 2017 at 10:58 am
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It’s getting the balance of a close match and likelihood of a team actually throwing away a 2 goal lead. Man Utd yday would been a closer match, but far less likely to squander a 2 goal lead than Liverpool or arsenal today
The best (most variance) way to play would be back and don’t lay, the 2 goal payout giving you the edge over bookie margin for losing bets
Just backing and laying the initial bet would lower variance, and leave you waiting for the bumper payout of 2 up and don’t win
Then doing the above but a further lay at 2-1 gets the more likely short term return, but lower long term… then a step further to lay at 2-0
Unless you can easily identify the probability of throwing a 2 goal lead verses qualifying loss it may be best to do occasionally or as part of something elseI suspect you are seeing low lays at 2-0 on dead certs
+0Yeah, I’m putting it on for Liverpool alongside the £50 inplay offer.
What I’ve been doing is backing and laying, and then checking the odds once they go two goals up. As so far they’ve been so low as not to make hardly any profit, I’ve then waited to see if the other team then pulls one back in order to increase the back odds and profit.+0Just out of interest is this offer open to all accounts on 365? Never seen it on the website under the promotions page and have been gubbed before.
For what it’s worth I treat this offer as a “jackpot” I look occasionally on the computer for close matches at various points throughout the weekend on pp and back/lay when I feel the odds are worth it.
This season the only game I can think of is Southampton v West Ham where they squandered a 2-0 lead but still won 3-2 with the last min pen. That would be the only chance to cash out for a decent amount.
+0I keep forgetting this for the inplay and end up doing the draw which is closest match
You should have had one of the in account messages for it beesty. Like u said basically mug betting with a potential jackpot seems a sensible way to play it rather than hitting it to expect to make a lot.
+0Does it make it more worthwhile if you’re just looking for them to pull one back, rather than for them to pull even? I’d also cash out immediately on them going two up,if there was enough profit in it (which I know is down to when in the game this happens and how strong a favourite they were)
+0Might seem more worthwhile as you’ll hit it more often, but less profitable long run as you’ll pay more commission and suffer more from the back/lay gap. Both marginal but add up
It’s all personal preference, one of the biggest matched bettors on here in terms of volume of bets guarantees all he can above long term value and sees much steadier days than me
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Just started to dip my toe into the water on this one.
I think Betfair seems the better exchange on this offer as Oddsmonkey users are saying the Smarkets odds/liquidity is terrible if a team goes 2-0 up.
Had Steaua Bucharest in tonight’s Europa League who went 2-0 up and then went to 2-1 on 88 mins. Unfortunately the ‘cash out’ on Betfair only flagged up for a few secs before going completely. That would’ve given me +£20 for the evening.
Of course the problem with Betfair is I’ve opted into the 2% commission via Oddsmonkey and I can only place 10 or less back bets or it reverts back to 5% commission.
Just wish I’d backed/layed Slavia Prague tonight. That would’ve been BOOM town!
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What is the deal with this? Had a few goes today and managed to get on pretty much a team in all the games. Anyway, the tick appeared next to Chelsea 30 secs before the game ended so assumed it worked on my gubbed account. Anyway, currently sitting on Bournemouth and Huddersfield and bets still are not settled on either team.
Anyone know from experience what they are like with paying out on this?
+0And that is Leicester in as well. It is so frustrating as I can not risk hedging anything should one of these 3 games become exciting.
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Made a right mess of this on Tuesday night. Backed Bristol City (£50) at 15 & was gonna lay at 15.5. Unfortunately I backed right at the time the team sheets came out and the lay odds shot up to 21!
I thought I’d be clever & hope that Bristol would take the lead & I could arb for an easy +£100. Bummer!
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Don’t feel as bad now. Had £50 on West Brom tonight.
Just cashed out at half time for +£346
+0I have hit 2up on Bournemouth against Wigan this season.
Worth doing at Paddy online and Betfred shop – the latter where I have hit on Livingstone, Bayern and a few others for mega cash 🙂
+0To revive a somewhat old thread… I’ve been doing a lot of this 2up offer recently and have also noticed that it would be more profitable to just back without laying. I am trying to justify to myself mathematically why this approach with greater variance leads to an expected profit over long term. Betman, could you please expand on your earlier statement:
“The best (most variance) way to play would be back and don’t lay, the 2 goal payout giving you the edge over bookie margin for losing bets”
– I am trying to get the underlying reason, statistically speaking, why this gives you the edge, given that the frequency of a team coming back from 2 down is very low?
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I’m looking forward to giving this offer a good go when I next have access to ungubbed b365 and PP accounts. I’ve been paying a little attention to the oddsmonkey thread on this and if you’re prepared to put the hours in, the returns seem to be pretty decent.
Back in August 2017 (I think) Smarkets/Matchbook weren’t offering 0% commission, so that would be part of the reason for increased expected returns by not laying. Also if the back odds of a team at the exchange are 2.70 and the lay odds are 2.72, you’d expect the true odds to be somewhere between the two, so you’d be giving up a little theoretical value in laying at 2.72.
Looking at Oddsmonkey, the general method for this offer (to reduce varience) seems to lay the initial bet in full. If your team goes 2up, then cash out a percentage (like 50%/33%), if the other team gets a goal back cashout a bit more (25%/33%)… etc…
Newcastle on Saturday would have been a nice one.
+0Yea crispy Newcastle would have been a good one. Was in the queue trying to lay a grand at 10, but it never got taken. Would have been a nice 5 figure win if somebody would have taken my money!
But best bet for 2up, big stakes, 50% cash out if team goes 2up and let the rest ride.
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