Business Secrets of the Pharaohs

  • I have decided to make this thread for several reasons. Matched betting sites are everywhere, they are all exact replicas of each other and are profiting from showing the basics to newcomers. Of course, the most recent case is Oddsmonkey jumping on the bandwagon – they had a great site and offered a unique odds searching service, but ruined it by relaunching as a matched betting site (offering nothing new). The other main reason is that this noticeboard has become slightly disillusioned with the quantity and speed of restrictions/bans.

    My opinion is that you are wasting your time tackling low return offers (and I will show you why below). I think the root of the problem may be that people often see matched betting as an investment of capital: “Oh, you can make £1000s with only a £200 starting bankroll”. That’s not quite true; you are also investing labour, and tackling low return offers results in an extremely low effective wage. Feel free to disagree, but I know that you can make more than Matt’s hypothetical profit of £13k (taking over two years) in as little as one month.

    I will attempt to break this thread into parts to make it easier to read over time, by revealing bookmaker weaknesses and inefficiencies.

    1. A topical site at the moment is Bet Bright. People are complaining of being restricted after attempting a couple of offers (win or lose). I signed up to Bet Bright several weeks ago and was banned within 3 days. How much did I make from them? £600. Bet Bright are extremely inefficient at pricing place markets for horse racing. They seem to price their place markets close to the off, with odds often being completely different to exchange odds. A few examples: I got several hundred pounds on (5 / 3.9), (3.3 / 2.7), (2.6 / 2.3)… The list goes on. If you pick your timing and don’t rush, you will certainly make a decent profit.

    2. Unibet/888/32Red/Stan James. Discussed before, but worth pointing out. These sites are extremely slow to update horse racing odds close to the off… I have no idea how they make a profit on these markets, especially as the odds move so rapidly on horses when the race approaches. A few people found the Unibet inefficiency last month and abused it in a suboptimal manner. They were betting at odds of 7 / 6 etc. and for small amounts. As with every bookmaker and their weakness, don’t rush it. Wait for the optimal moment and go big. There are times when I found 3 / 2.5 on these sites, with max bets of hundreds of pounds.

    3. BetFred / Totesport. I see the price boosts/pushes have become quite popular. The max bet is usually £100 on these offers, but depends on the status of your account. Why bet £100 on a great offer once every few days when you can bet hundreds of pounds on one offer? In order to do this, you need to double the boosted selection with other outcomes (e.g. low odds football matches). You can then lay off the second leg as usual – yet you’ve achieved a large exposure on the boost/value. I once effectively got £700 on a BetFred boost, when the odds were 3/2.7.

    I will continue to contribute to this thread with more inefficiencies when I have time. Perhaps others could contribute with their findings, but I doubt this will happen. When you find an inefficiency it’s quite tempting to keep it to yourself as you know it will disappear when it becomes public knowledge.

  • New to matched betting?

    My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

    Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

    MarkCorrigan 9

    4. I have mentioned this one before. Sky Bet are really inefficient (and slow moving) when it comes to pricing international races. The easiest case is US racing. You can bet hundreds of pounds on amazing value… Especially when the Betfair market firms up, with odds changing quickly, several minutes before the race. You can make £1000 from them if you wait for the opportune moments – Yes, you will get restricted, but you won’t make that much from them in the long-run, attempting their offers.

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    Sy 1

    Great read, thanks for sharing

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    MarkCorrigan 9

    No problem!

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    kjillman 1

    great post Mark, Will keep an eye on the place markets as I never tend to look at them.I find basic patience on price boosts work well for example yesterday on the betfred Liverpool boost at 2.75 when the game started was 2.22 but everyone was getting on it at 2.38 mid afternoon.

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    Sy 1

    Mark, Have you ever had any experience with getting such a good price that a bookie refuses to pay out. I can’t remember the term for it but if the price is quite obviously far out from other bookmakers arn’t they able to legally do that in these instances. I know this wouldn’t happen with the fred boosts but what about place odds etc.

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    Sy 1

    Kjillman, how can you know for sure which way the odds are going to go though? It could have quite easily gone the other way and you would have lost value

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    Dave_Jones 7

    @Sy are you talking about palpable errors?

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    smothy17 0

    Great post Mark! Out of interest how much did you make last month?

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    Sy 1

    Yes, that’s the one Dave. Question is, when does it become a palpable error?

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    CashedUp
    Blocked
    40

    Fantastic post Mark. Thank you.

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    MarkCorrigan 9

    In my experience I’ve never had any problems. It’s probably quite hard for a bookmaker to claim a palpable error when they’re consistently pricing the market differently/wrong.


    @smothy17
    , I didn’t make much from matched betting last month… I’m basically banned from all bookmakers, so any betting I do is on the exchanges.

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    Dave_Jones 7

    @ Mark excellent post and very thought provoking. I think a bettors psychology has to be considered though. Most people have a sort of threshold that they are comfortable betting at. I know this doesn’t make logical sense but this is how most people think.

    Here is an example, I used to play a lot of limit holdem years ago and made decent money. I mainly used to play the $5/$10 six player games and sometimes the $10/$20 if I could get good position on a poor player.

    Whenever I tried playing bigger say $25/$50 or even a few times $50/$100. I could not beat these games even though I know my skills were good enough to because I was getting good position on the same poor players that I was beating at the lower limit tables.

    The reason was psychology I could not make unemotional decisions when the pots were starting to contain five or ten times more money than I was used to.

    Chatting to several high limit successful players they told me that this is what stops most reasonable players from making a fortune playing poker, its only a few people that can make good decisions when thousands of dollars are on the line.

    My thinking is Mark that you are comfortable betting hundreds even thousands of pounds. I don’t think I would be. This has nothing to do with how much money you have got, I obviously don’t want to go into detail, but lets just say I am comfortably off and loosing a few thousand pounds due to mistakes or infrastructure failure would not make a big difference to me.

    Some people can operate fine when betting large amounts, but most people cant.

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    kjillman 1

    SY, Well you already have the price boost so you won’t lose out and seeing that market from Tuesday onwards Liverpool were at 2.65 to begin with and by 12 pm yesterday were 2.38 so were coming in and nearer the kick off people were putting their money on them.

    How many times have you got a match on the football pre match and when checking back you could have got much closer nearer kick off.

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    MbPunter 18

    I think palps are more when they made an obvious error like pricing something 25.0 instead of 2.5 or say they have the prices the wrong way round in a tennis, Djokovic at 12.0 rather than his opponent. Being slow to react to the market or pricing something at 3.0 when it should be 2.6, shouldn’t really give them a leg to stand on when it comes to palps.

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    deathstar 25

    Excellent post Mark, very clearly expressed.
    To add to the “unwillingness to do these offers” part of this thread, I imagine people simply don’t have the float to start with, so by the time people have got £200 together to start and made a few bets the mindset is rooted and so the quest for the easy bet x get x is already the be all and end all of the exercise, along with the fact that the advice is always “don’t do arbs, you’ll get gubbed”. I suppose it depends on whether you are happy for £200- £300 per month for a while all the time trying to keep your accounts alive, or do you want jackpot and burn for a few weeks.

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