Early Prices

  • I thought that I would say something about this. I’m restricted on B365 but decided that I wanted to be in the BOG+ game and also thinking that I can still hit the loyalty bonuses they have which are usually pretty good.

    My restriction seems to mean that I cannot win more than €12.50 on a horse.

    My strategy is that I simply scan all the races on bet365 and smarkets the night before. If there is a small arb or the exchange lay is the same as the bookie back then I bet max. I’ll go e/w sometimes on longer odds especially if it look like it will be a bad e/w race.

    I don’t see how you can lose as either the price goes down and you are on an arb, or it goes up and you get bog plus so you beat SP anyway. Only 10% of prices didn’t change at all.

    The results are in.

    I backed 200 horses since Dec 20-ish. Total stakes €800. Profit is €200. That’s a €200 profit on average stakes of just €4. (Amounts posted are not exact to protect my account from being identified but they are consistent with the exact profits).

    No loyalty bonus yet! Do bet365 stop with the loyalty bonus after you are restricted?

    Because my stakes were small I didn’t lay but of course you can lay when the price swings in your favour to cash out on the value that you created, or lay just before the off if the price has drifted to break about even as you will still be getting BOG+. Might actually work out more profitable to lay as a few of my horses came in during the morning for a big arb and then drifted back out before the race for BOG+ too.

    I checked my price against the SP. If I had taken SP I still would have made a profit of €50 which I suppose shows that I got a bit of luck in the horses that I picked, or there is some mechanics going on that when a horse steams in that his SP price is still value. Its not a significant amount of luck anyway €50 profit from €800 stakes. Even if €50 of the profit was due to luck that still leave €150 profit from changes in price and bog+.

    My average boost was that I was getting 1.4 times SP. So typically I would back at 5/2 the night before and the price would dropped to 6/5, my edge would be something like that. I got double odds or better on 20 horses for example I backed at 8/1 and the horse went off at 4/1. The best I had was a 4 times boosts with horse at 12/1 the night before and 3/1 at the off.

    Comments from other forum users is that when they tried this that they got gubbed very quickly. I’ve had no further restrictions yet but its only early days. I think with small stakes you can go under the radar.

    Yes its a lot of work as with small stakes I am looking to get a big volume of bets on the night before, usually find 10-20 horses.

    The Christmas period with Limerick and Leopardstown 4 day festivals were great for races and may have exaggerated my profits. Irish races seem famous for huge fluctuations in odds.

    Anyway its been two week and over 100 horses so I think its almost enough to prove that there is value in this. The only warning is that you will probably lose your account. And its quite time consuming work finding enough horses to make it worth while on restricted stakes, but I find that these days most strategies are quite time consuming now that all the low hanging fruit is gone. I’ve been trying it out on b365 which gives BOG+ but honestly that has hardly kicked in because most of the time the price shortens but on other bookies or where you are gubbed from BOG then the profits might not be quite as significant.

  • Johnbo
    Participant

    Nice one tony, mine both drifted by race time, by the cosmic law of sod 🙂

    harris
    harris
    Participant

    Just got extremely lucky and found a horse (17:25 Meydan) who’s odds at most bookies are 20/1 with around £70 available to lay on the place at 2.04…. Got my bet on at the bookies and now have a 6/2.04 each way arb and have guaranteed £40+ profit. Didn’t know where else to put this but anyone know how on earth this happened/why? I’m so confused…

    MbPunter
    Participant

    Guessing someone was trying to leave a lay in at 2.04 and mistakenly backed instead.

    Or backed the wrong horse.

    harris
    harris
    Participant

    Cheers MbPunter that would make sense, lets hope its not a non runner!

    mitch_ford
    Participant

    Thought I’d give this a shot last night. Backed moamar in the 16:00 at Newcastle at 19.0 and managed to lay just before it went off at 4.1!!! From a couple of quid I stood to make about £10 profit. However, I managed to mess it up and somehow lost £40. Oops. Think I know what I did though so I guess I’ll learn from my mistakes

    mitch_ford
    Participant

    Just looked on b365 and it says a rule 4 of 25p applied… that increased my loss. But I don’t fully get what it is?

    FoG_BLoG
    FoG_BLoG
    Participant

    So Mum’s The Word was withdrawn after you made your bet. If its a 25p deduction then Mum’s the Word’s odds must have been about 3/1 which would be a fancied enough horse and a significant withdrawal so would mean the bookie will recalculate your odds.

    In this case I think they are reducing your winnings by 25%.

    If you got at 18/1 then after taking 25% off then your odds that they payout should still be something like 14.5 in decimal which is still a lot more than what you figured you layed at so I think you should still have profit.

    I think rule 4 gets complicated sometimes. Not sure if they reduce your horses price that you took, or reduce the price the horse was at the time of the withdrawal. Sometimes it gets messy.

    What price did you take? What price did they payout at?

    FoG_BLoG
    FoG_BLoG
    Participant

    Okay, I just cashed out some of my chelmsford bets as looks like it is called off. I took them at big prices last night and some have shortened enough that the cash out value is actually bigger than my stake so was worth cashing out before they void them.

    Pavlon
    Participant

    Yeah, Chelsford meeting abandoned due to heavy snow. A right shitter as I had a couple of massive arbs.

    mitch_ford
    Participant

    Paid at 14.5. However I made a huge mistake myself where I layer twice… connection was poor and it didn’t appear to have gone through so I tried again and the bet was taken twice. So yeah done out of my own fault. Worse because of the rule 4

    mitch_ford
    Participant

    Laid even

    FoG_BLoG
    FoG_BLoG
    Participant

    Sorry about that mitch_ford – make it back tomorrow!

    Worked out okay for me Pavlon, I was quick enough to cash out a couple of horses for profit. I think that’s the first time I made money on a horse that never even ran. Hope Bet365 doesn’t reverse my cashouts.

    MbPunter
    Participant

    Would they not end up void FoG?

    Decent loophole if not!

    mitch_ford
    Participant

    Yeah need to try and get it back tomorrow! But at least I’ll learn from it

    FoG_BLoG
    FoG_BLoG
    Participant

    I was thinking they might void my cash outs MBPunter.

    But looks like I got away with it. Not big money because I am restricted but made 50% profit on one of them.

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