Easy way to avoid gubbing..?
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Ok I’m fairly new to this so may be missing something glaringly obvious…
But…
If you take all.offers at a bookies and then instead of Withdrawing the funds lose it to them via a matched bet so that all your money is on the exchange surely the bookies are happy?
Even if the know you are matched betting surely they won’t close your account if they see you are always losing it back to them so you can withdraw on an exchange?
Ok so maybe once in a blue moon you will get back to back 10/1s come off and be stuck there with a couple of grand to withdraw but generally speaking this won’t occur?
+1June 19, 2016 at 9:26 pm
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If it was as easy as that then most of us who’ve been on here for a while wouldn’t be banned from most major bookmakers and a lot of smaller ones as well.
+0Appreciate that… And like I said, I’m sure I’m missing something but why would you not elaborate as to why it’s not as easy as that? Seems pretty standard to me? Make all losses at bookies and all profits at exchange? Like I said I’m sure it’s not but the topic was to find out why not?
+0Sounds like a good strategy to me, if you do that alongside regular mug bets and not taking up every risk free reload they offer you probably stand a better chance of not being gubbed. It will be interesting to see what the more experienced people on here think.
+0You can’t pick and choose where you win/lose money.
All the value is from the bookies. That’s where your profit will be long term.
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Some/Most bookies don’t look at it that way, you could be down thousands to them but still get gubbed as they see you are taking the value from them and will (eventually) make losses up so they will be out of pocket.
Sometimes it gets me too when I get gubbed with bookies that have profited in the hundreds from me but hey ho.
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Bob if it was easy to lose into the exchange long term you wouldn’t need to bother with the bookies at all you’d just be laying. I think a general fact is if you take bookies up on their offers you will eventually get gubbed. Everyone’s got their own theories why but no one really knows. I’ve got a couple of accounts still open that I’ve won a bit from that people generally lose quite quickly. I’ve also been gubbed by ones that seem a bit more user friendly. My advise is you won’t beat the system so you may as well try to take what you can for as long as you can.
+0If only it was this easy.
I have been waiting to open a Bet365 account for a couple of months until i had a bank roll big enough to tackle the £200 welcome bonus. Finally did it last week and backed three horses with odds of over 8 in races with an odds on favorite for £50 each only for all 3 to come in. Bet365 have now gubbed me and restricted my stakes to a stupid level before I have even got halfway through the rollover requirements. As much as it might seem simple, losing to the booky can be as difficult as winning from them.I have been quite surprised recently by the longevity of a couple of my accounts considering how i have been using them. A few weeks ago I spent a few hours over a couple of afternoons jumping on arbs 10mins before the off on horse races. I was expecting to be gubbed quite quick and was trying to go big, but after 3 weeks doing this regularly im still in action. The only thing i can think is that I might be emulating the activity of a compulsive gambler by betting on race after race, as if i was chasing losses. For what its worth, this has been an incredibly profitable strategy.
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But you can just lose money to.them.cant you?
Ie I do a do a matched betting process for whatever and end up with 20 quid on bookies. I then Stake that on something at 10/1 and lay off on exchange. If it comes off then I rinse and repeat with 200 quid on bookies.
If it comes off again then I withdraw 2,000 and get gubbed but chances of that are longer than 100/1!
So would always be in negative with the bookies?
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Which just means you get gubbed every 100 bets.
At least at £20 a time you do. If you match bet a free bet at long odds (typical) and it wins you will likely end up with £200 at the bookies not £20. In which case your initial odds are 10/1 not 100/1.
You could try to lose it at £20 a time but then you have to repeat the exercise 10 times, which has the same effect.
Odds is odds. They do exactly what they say on the tin.
+0bob – That was my initial attitude. But in the 7 months I’ve been doing this, I have pretty much always had a loss over the past 30 days in my Smarkets account.
wottsy – If you’re still looking to hit the rollover, just bet on football matches win market as near to 1.5+ as possible, and find a tight lay. If you’re stake is limited to stop you ever winning more than £50, then you can bet around £100 on a 1.5 bet.
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I suppose doing that you could but you need to take into account commission plus it wouldnt help you keep your account open for long. Also theres no guaranteeing a book would allow a £200 bet @ 10/1. I still dont believe theres any easy way to avoid gubbing. Take PaddyPowers Euros offer bet £20 on one match per day and get a £5 free bet for each goal your team scores. I bet therell be loads of gubbings for people who do that offer regularly once the tourney finishes whether they end up in profit or not. Another example is Corals Cheltenham offer. They did bet £20 on the first race of the day and get a free £5 bet for each Irish winner (there was 6). Then they did the same for British winners (there was 4). I then got banned for getting too many free bets. I argued id only done their offer and couldnt have predicted getting that many. The guy said i know weve had loads of complaints. Id even put 5 x £5 bets on one race didnt lay them and they all lost so it wasnt as if id even profitted from them.
+0The value for matchbetting comes from the offers from the bookies.
If you cant grasp that pricipal you shouldnt be matchbetting.
The millions made by matchbetters comes directly from the bookies and not from the exchanges,+0Patrick – Of course I understand that. I understand the profit we make comes from the value in the bookie promotions. What I want to do is when we have banked that value, if it is banked at the bookies, transfer it to the exchange so that the bookies effectively win their money back and profit from us and we make a fake loss and regain the profit on the exchange
From what I read elsewhere it seems a strategy that works until you get a sequence of results at the bookies forcing a large withdrawal.
For this to happen you would a) have to be unfortunate to end up with money at the bookies in first place (approx 30% of the time), b) then have consecutive 10/1 bets also come off at the bookies leading to overall shot of a large withdrawal at bookies approx 300/1 for each matched bet we go through. That doesnt seem a bad return.
Obviously also 10/1 shots are not usually 9% to win, more 7-8% due to the overround so actual chances of this happening are longer than 300/1.
So this is the plan I intend to try… If any of my bookie accounts get over £100 when I log in I will look to lay off the excess using matched betting with the exchange. I will look for odds around 1.4-1.8 to make it also look like mug betting on the favourites as laying the favourites is also where bookies make most their money.
If that excess gets over £500 I will force a withdrawal reluctantly and probably be gubbed. If that happens then IMO looking at the maths it is approx a 300/1 shot and il shrug it off and use the other 38 bookies.
I see what people are saying, and I agree this may/may not work in practice but it doesnt appear to have been attempted anywhere before (at least from looking on google) and so I will document the progress and post in here as and when I have to take action due to going over £100.
Ladbrokes today has gone to £135 due to a 2.0, 1.63 and 6.5 coming off (20/1 in its own right) so have backed and layed Argentina at 1.44/1.46 for £35 to get it to the exchange.
All thoughts are welcome along with constructive critisism. Always open to hearing other ideas
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So your gonna lose 70p and theres a good chance Argentina will win anyway? that isnt good business. A bet i had today close to off time in a race was £100 @ 2.2 lay of 2.1. Layed £102.04 on Smarkets so broke even if the horse lost or a £7.74 profit if it won. Thats the only way to do it. Withdrawing money does not in my opinion guarantee you get gubbed. Read my post on Tote/Fred. Ive not made a single withdrawal from Tote and i still got gubbed. The only way to prevent getting gubbed is not to bet.
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