Help with acca refund / bonus offers
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Hi,
A good few of us have been asking for weeks now for help on how to make profit from the various acca offers bonuses. Could anyone offer some guidance here?
+0December 18, 2015 at 9:12 am
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The fact no-one has replied tells the story.Very difficult ,if not impossible ,to achieve guaranteed profits on these offers.
The Saturday football acca’s one of the biggest revenue earners for the bookies.
Punters staking a relatively small amount in the hope of winning big.+0
Actually, these offers are clearly profitable in the long-run.
The key is to find 5 legs (in the case for Paddy Power) which have odds of 1.25. Why 1.25? This maximizes your expected value.
Assume that we find 5 legs which are the same odds on the exchange.
Let x represent the probability of each leg winning. Our payoff is clearly maximized by maximizing the probability that we achieve the free bet (if the odds are true, our EV would normally be zero). We want to therefore maximize 5*x^4*(1-x). Taking FOC: 5*(4x^3-5x^4)=0. => x=4/5. Hence, our return is maximized when x=0.8 (or the odds are 1.25).This essentially means that our expected return is +40%, assuming that you extract 100% of the free bet – or for every £50 acca we play, we are expected to gain £20. If you’re obsessed with matched betting (risk free), then make sure none of the legs overlap and lay off accordingly.
+0Hmm not sure i understand I wouldn’t say I was even close to stupidf but this is beyond me I would need to see an actual working model to understand.
e.g
Acc placed @ odds stake=Selection 1 odds laid at
Selection 2 odds laid at etcand a running commentary on how this is managed when to lay etc
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Patrick you’re way off the mark, people on here know to profit from these easily but haven’t shared the info yet.
Mark thanks for that, that’s exactly what I was hoping for, although as Shaun said would need to see a working example to fully grasp it.
Will have a look at the fixtures now and see if an example could be made in here.
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Okay so; 5 selections on Paddy Power for their refund if 1 game loses offer.
Dunfermline @ 1.25 (Sat – 3pm) Implied probability – 80%
Juventus @ 1.4 (Sun – 11:30am) Implied probability – 71.4%
Fiorentina @ 1.4 (Sun – 2pm) Implied probability – 71.4%
B. Mon’Glad. @ 1.44 (Sun – 4:30pm) Implied probability – 69.4%
At. Bilbao @ 1.4 (Sun – 5:15pm) Implied probability – 71.4%Those seem to be the best fixtures that don’t over lap each other….
So what should the lay staking be on these? Assuming that we’re betting €25 on this?
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You may not like it but the easiest approach is to find matches where the bookmaker is offering good odds (comparable to the exchanges) close to 1.25 and place accumulators without laying. This will tend to the EV over many accumulators which in practice will be slightly lower than what Mark calculated (unlikely to extract 100% of free bet and bookmaker odds are generally under market value which we can assume represents true probability).
Obviously if you are risk adverse and refuse to take any risk whatsoever you won’t want to do this. In which case you can lay each leg in turn providing all previous legs have won. Naturally the legs of the accumulator must not overlap, unlike the list you have given Dan, as we must know the previous results to decide if the next leg will be laid or not. Once a leg loses you just hope that those remaing win to earn you the refund – the best case for us is that the first leg loses so we only incur one qualifying loss, and have a high probability of the remaing legs winning: [(1/1.25)^4].
I am surprised people on a matched betting forum with in built calculator cannot calculate the lay stake – for the first leg use the calculator for a qualifying loss on your accumulator stake with the back/lay odds of leg one – you should be placing the value of the maximum refund paid by the offer on the accumulator to maximize EV. If that leg wins use the calculator again, this time the stake is the the ‘winnings’ from leg 1, ie the odds you have for that leg in your accumulator times the origional stake. If that wins now times that stake by the odds of leg 2 to get the new stake and repeat.
This method could be compared to the money back second horse offers as you pay a qualifying loss in the hope of exactly one leg losing, which statistically pays off in the long run. The reason I reccomend not laying is that providing you are finding good value odds for the accumulator the EV is essentially the same and you save a lot of time by not laying. The terms and conditions allow you to have 4 accumulators per day so the time required to lay everything quickly adds up.
+0Enjoying the aliases
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Will Super Hans be next? Or Johnson?
+0How did we all do on the SkyBet acca then? Pretty fortunate cash out times myself, especially my Leicester lay!
£15 (my max) @ 10.0
Lay £16 Utd @ 1.48, Lay £16 Leicester @ 3.9 (at 2-0 Chelsea)
At 3-1/1-2/1-1, I cashed Sky out for £9.33, Leicester lay out for £4, and Utd for £12.53.In total £10.56 profit after commission, feeling very lucky though as Leicester scored about 5 minutes later! Hope you all got some decent results.
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Laying acca legs individually (when they occur at the same time) is not the best idea. You could have laid the exact accumulator for 8.4 on betfair as others mentioned in other threads.
+0I just finished my program that calculates the profit for one leg lets you down on ACCA:s. In the program I calculated the potential return on Betways offer which requires a minimum decimal odds of 5.
%Acca Money back if one leg folds
%By:Char@MBclc
clear all
close all
%Acca calculator
S = 25; %Back Stake
legs = 5;
MinX = 5;
Xx = 5^(1/5);
Yy = Xx;
X = [Xx Xx Xx Xx Xx]; %Back odds [X1 X2 X3 … Xn-1 Xn]
Y = [Yy Yy Yy Yy Yy]; %Lay odds [Y1 Y2 Y3 … Yn-1 yn]
C = 0.02; %commision
A = zeros(length(X) + 1);for j = 1:length(X)
for i = 1:(length(X))k = i + 1;
A(i+1,j) = -(Y(j)-1);end
endfor n = 1:(length(X) + 1)
A(n,n) = (1 – C);
b(n) = Send
b(n – 1) = S-S*0.8;
b(n) = -S*prod(X) + S;
A(:,length(X) + 1) = -1;
for k = 1:(length(X)-1)
A(1:k,k+1) = 0end
bb = b’;
M = inv(A)*bbThe results are as follows:
L1: 26.3436 gbp
L2: 36.5512 gbp
L3: 50.7140 gbp
L4: 70.3646 gbp
L5: 77.2212 gbp
Profit: 0.8167L1-L5 are the lay stakes. So the profit is a mere pound. And in this case I assumed that I found minimum odds which are 5^(1/5)=1.38 and that the Lay odds were the same. So in reality it will be hard to make any profit from these offers.
Instead assuming three legs and a minimum odds of 5 gives a profit of 2.2 gbp. And two legs gives a profit of 4.4 gbp. Slightly better but probably wont worth the work.
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Yeah, this is wrong.
What do you think the EV is if you simply bet 5 legs, each with odds of 1.5?
(Answer: for a £25 bet, and assuming 80% extraction of free bet as you have used, your EV is £31.58).
And for 5 legs, each with odds 1.25?
(Answer: for a £25 bet, and assuming 80% extraction of free bet as you have used, your EV is £33.19).
+0Yeah Mark that is clearly a better alternative even though the true EV is probably a bit lower as someone mentioned before. Just wanted to play around with over and under laying to see what value could be expected. The idea was to over lay all the way to the fifth leg where you underlay and stopping as soon as one leg folds to always guarantee a profit.
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Yeah of course! It’s always useful to play around with it… At least you had the initiative to write a script and derive the amount to lay – most people on here gave up because they weren’t spoon fed the answer.
+0Yeah you always learn something if you do some calculations yourself instead of just using an arbing calculator or waiting for other to come up with the answer!
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