Help with acca refund / bonus offers
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Hi,
A good few of us have been asking for weeks now for help on how to make profit from the various acca offers bonuses. Could anyone offer some guidance here?
+0December 18, 2015 at 9:12 am
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Fair enough. It’s not for everyone.
Btw, if you change to 80%… the EV becomes +£9.75. I’m not trying to make people do anything they’re not comfortable with, I just want to point out that this offer is very profitable (you can do 1 of these each day per site, using most of the same legs in each one). Also, with the example, I literally took the first 6 that Odds Monkey gave with odds<1.5.
+0Just dont think you have taken into account the chance of 2 or more losing bets where the return is nil,as was pointed out by roro1990 above.
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I did… but you get 0, so I didn’t include it in the calculation. Let’s make it clearer, by minusing the £50 stake:
EV = 0.243*3.61*50 + 0.396*50*0.9 – 0.361*0 – 50 = £11.73.
+0But in 36% of cases your return will be zero,and the other 64% winings of £11 will not cover those losses.
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You must be trolling?
For your sake, don’t do the ACCA offers. Please stick to the simple ones.
For those who are interested:
Our bet wins with probability 24.3%. We would have a return of 3.61*50 = £180.65. Or a £130.65 profit.
We get our money back if one leg loses. This happens with probability 0.396. If we extract 90% from the free bet, this would give a return of £45. Or a £5 loss.
Finally, with probability 0.361 more than one legs loses and we get 0. Or a £50 loss.
Therefore, our expected value is 0.243*130.65 + 0.396*(-5) + 0.361*(-50) = £11.73.
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“Very difficult,if not impossible,to guarantee profits from these Acca offers IF you lack common sense, numerical competence or the ability to follow a step by step example”
Just stick to straight forward offers posted on the blog
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