Help with acca refund / bonus offers
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Hi,
A good few of us have been asking for weeks now for help on how to make profit from the various acca offers bonuses. Could anyone offer some guidance here?
+0December 18, 2015 at 9:12 am
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I am still struggling to see how you can make a guaranteed profit on these Acca offers f a free bet if one leg loses.
Can someone please show an example, of lay odds required before each leg.
To my simple mind if I do a 5 leg Acca , with each leg having odds of 1.25 at the bookies,
with a £10 stake , I will have total winnings of £20.52 if all 5 legs win.However if I lay each leg to lose to recover my original stake of £10 , I will have invested £26.86 if the 1st 4 legs win.If the 5th leg wins I will collect £30.52 (profit of £4.34 ) and if it loses I will collect a £10 free bet.(loss of £18.86 ).These figures are calculated assuming I can lay at the same odds of 1.25 on Betfair. (Very unlikely in reality ).
My workings are below,
Stake £10 Potential Lay bet Lay Loss
WinningsLeg 1 1.25 12.50 10.53 2.63
Leg 2 1.25 15.63 13.31 3.33
Leg 3 1.25 19.53 16.84 4.21
Leg 4 1.25 24.41 21.29 5.32
Leg 5 1.25 30.52 26.86 6.72+0In my example above , column 2 is bookies odds (and assumed exchange odds), column 3 potential winnings of the Acca. Column 4 is the lay stake required on each leg.Column 5 the loss if the leg wins.
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How did you derive the amounts you are laying?
There’s so many strategies available which is what makes this perfect for everyone… I’m guessing you’re trying to guarantee a profit. You need to use backward induction to derive this. i.e. In your example of 5 legs at 1.25, if the first 4 legs win, you would lay £4.10 and guarantee £26.41 regardless of the outcome (100% extraction assumed).
An easier strategy is to lay your initial stake on every leg. e.g. Lay £10 on leg 1, if it wins then lay £10 on leg 2 etc. and when you reach the final leg it becomes a risk free bet. If any of the first 4 legs lose, you would get your £10 stake back and it would once again be risk free for the remaining legs (hoping for a free bet this time).
Personally, I don’t lay any of the legs. I make sure that the odds of the legs are close, and use a spreadsheet to calculate the expected value (using exchange odds for the true probability of an outcome). After all, you lose out to commission in the long run. I would like to point out that if you bet 5 legs all at 1.10, the probability that 2 or more legs lose is only 6.8%, your bet wins 62%, and you get money back as a free bet 31% of the time.
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Oh, also, even if you place a 5 leg acca with every leg at odds 1.10 on the bookie and 1.15 on the exchange (which is ridiculously lenient), and assume a low 80% extraction of your free bet, this is STILL plus EV… (Your EV would be £54.95 from a £50 bet).
Hope this helps!
EDIT: In the post above, I meant to say in Leg 1 lay £10, then in Leg 2 you would lay £12.50 etc. (not £10 every time).
+0^^ fairly sure each leg needs to be over odds of 1.1 to activate a refund.
+0Which I have done in my example,except the 1st lay has to be £10.53 to cover the Betfair commission or£10.22 on Smarkets.
In my example I was just trying to recover my initial stake using Betfair to lay.
I am still not convinced Mark,could you do an example leg by leg as I have done.
+0Prehaps you could work through leg by leg your example where you say a £50 bet gives you an EV of £54.95,
If I am struggling with this logic I am sure others are.
Thanks for your help and time.
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Several bookmakers, such as William Hill, have no mininim odds for such a promotion.
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Your lay stakes are strange – if you are looking to lock in a 100% guarenteed profit on every single accumulator Itll is simply not possible. It is however still very profitable and can be done with next to no risk, just use the calculator on this site to determine the lay stakes so that the ‘qualifying losses’ on each leg are fixed regardless of the outcomes. For your example the following values are produced:
Leg one: Stake £10, back/lay odds 1.25, commission 5% = -10p for all outcomes.
If the bet lost, hope the rest win (41% chance) for a free £10 bet that cost you 10p, if it won move on to lay the next leg:Leg two: Stake £12.50, back/lay odds 1.25, commission 5% = -13p for all outcomes. If the bet lost, hope the rest win (51% chance) for a free £10 bet that cost you 10+13 = 23p, if it won:
Leg three: Stake £15.63, back/lay odds 1.25, commission 5% = -16p for all outcomes. If the bet lost, hope the rest win (64% chance) for a free £10 bet that cost you 23+16 = 39p, if it won:
Leg four: Stake £19.53, back/lay odds 1.25, commission 5% = -20p for all outcomes. If the bet lost, hope the last one wins (80% chance) for a free £10 bet that cost you 39+20 = 59p.
If the first 4 have all won, then you have paid a small qualifying loss for a partial risk free bet on the last leg (£24.41 bet on odds of 1.25, if it loses you get a £10 free bet) if you continued as before, using the calculator again: stake £24.41, back/lay odds 1.25, commission 5% = -25p for all outcomes. If the bet lost (20% chance), you get a £10 bet that cost you 59+25 = 84p. However, if this final leg has won the accumulator will be paid out however you are down 84 pence due to the losses related to laying each leg (this outcome is of course expected to happen ~33% of the time in your example [(1/1.25)^5]).
In keeping with the risk free approach most people here insist on taking you can use the risk free calculator for this leg to lock in profit were you to each this final leg with all wins so far: Stake £24.41, back/lay odds 1.25, commission 5%, cash back £8 [very conservative, 80% extraction is extremely low] gives us a guaranteed profit £1.41 on this leg and £0.82 for the offer after accounting for the losses on the 4 prior legs.
You can see how the loss occuring get early is beneficial so you may want to consider that when selecting your legs.
Note that this is still technically not risk free as when 2 or more legs lose you are down a few pence but I hope you can see how this is extremely profitable in the long run, particularly when you are placing £50/£25 accumulators on multiple sites, sticking to low odds outcomes and extacting upwards of 90% from every free bet.
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Jeremy has given a great overview of laying accumulators.
This is my last post on the matter, giving a real-time example and explaining why it is plus EV in the long-run.
Consider the WH acca insurance offer: 6 legs and no minimum odds. I will choose the first games I find on Odds Monkey and place a £50 wager:
1. Real Madrid (WH: 1.12, BF 1.13)
2. Arsenal (WH: 1.30, BF 1.32)
3. Barcelona (WH: 1.04, BF 1.09)
4. Celtic (WH: 1.36, BF 1.40)
5. Benfica (WH: 1.29, BF 1.31)
6. Porto (WH: 1.36, BF 1.38)The subjective probability, using BF odds, that the acca wins is 0.243 with total odds on WH of 3.61. The subjective probability that exactly one legs loses is 0.396, which would return a free bet of £50. Let’s assume 90% extraction.
The expected value of this bet is:
EV = 0.243*3.61*50 + 0.396*50*0.9 = £61.73. Therefore, giving me an expected profit of £11.73 (it is not unreasonable to aim for £20+ on these). Like I said above, I do not lay these as in the long-run I will tend towards the EV and you only lose out to paying commission.
Hope this helps!
+0^^
Should that EV calculation not take into account the outcome where you lose your 50 quid completely, i.e more than one leg loses?
I don’t understand the maths too well, but assuming the remaining probability is 1-0.396-0.243= 0.361
So the calculation then becomes (0.243*3.61*50)+(0.396*50*90)+(0.361*-50) = 43.63
which is less than the 50 quid outlay.+0
Not quite; I have calculated the expected value of the bet (not the expected profit/loss). Obviously there is a 36.1% probability that the bet loses, but that resulting value is 0.
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To expand a little, to calculate the EV of my action of betting, I should just minus the £50 outlay… this is what gives the £11 or so.
+0And the extraction rate of the freebet used is 90% which is at the highest end if the scale. 75-80 % more realistic.
I have seen nothing on this very long thread that changes my view that I stated right at the beginning of the thread-
“Very difficult,if not impossible,to guarantee profits from these Acca offers”
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