Sequential Lay for guaranteed profit

Firstly, the tool posted by FoG today is great – I’m just providing an alternative here. Both approaches should lead roughly the same profit in the long run.

However many of you do prefer to have guaranteed profit every time so you are not rooting for these enhanced accumulators to come to so you can make any profit – that is what this Google document provides: Lay stakes to give guaranteed profit no matter which leg (if any) lets us down.

Here is the link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZPrRSvSj6zoghVqllLWpcxdb4zfEVcxcHNZa6jUvcAY/
Only the yellow cells need be edited – unfortunately there is an issue with google docs causing it to take a few seconds to update (it is instantaneous locally with MS excel) but I hope it can still be of use to a few of you.

Cheers,
Jez

+0

JeremyUsbourne
0

February 15, 2016 at 7:04 pm

New to matched betting?

My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

Learn Matched Betting

JeremyUsbourne 0 February 16, 2016 at 2:35 pm

*exchange not enhance

+0

Tony 13 February 16, 2016 at 2:57 pm

Continues to deliver.

Kudos, Sir. Kudos 🙂

+0

dmc 3 February 16, 2016 at 10:25 pm

Thanks, your hard work is appreciated 🙂 I wish I’d used this at the weekend with the stanjames money back acca offer.

I’m interested in the mathematics of it. Been trying to do something similar myself, pretty sure that I’m nearly there (between 98 – 99%) however my guaranteed profit is never quite the same as yours (so assume I’m missing something).

Can we discuss?

+0

Nolan Ryan 0 February 17, 2016 at 1:27 am

I’ve been sequentially laying for a while, aiming for a fixed profit mostly by calculating using the What If function in Excel. Your spreadsheet might be useful but I think I’ve come across a limitation.

Assuming that the legs don’t overlap, there is going to be a time delay between placing lays on each leg – I understand this is a minor risk but that’s how it goes. The problem is that the sheet recalculates the lay stakes on the previous legs when updating the current leg meaning we’re still not getting a fixed profit as we already placed the lays on the previous legs.

+0

MarkCorrigan 15 February 17, 2016 at 1:45 am

Although the spreadsheet will update the optimal stakes for previous legs, it makes no difference… Those lays have become a sunk cost and the future lay stakes remain optimal (i.e. the bookmaker odds are fixed). You are correct that profit will, however, have some variance – potentially good or bad – depending on lay odds fluctuating.

+0

orlandosteve 2 November 20, 2016 at 5:51 pm

Great

+0