Sequential Lay for guaranteed profit
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Firstly, the tool posted by FoG today is great – I’m just providing an alternative here. Both approaches should lead roughly the same profit in the long run.
However many of you do prefer to have guaranteed profit every time so you are not rooting for these enhanced accumulators to come to so you can make any profit – that is what this Google document provides: Lay stakes to give guaranteed profit no matter which leg (if any) lets us down.
Here is the link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZPrRSvSj6zoghVqllLWpcxdb4zfEVcxcHNZa6jUvcAY/
Only the yellow cells need be edited – unfortunately there is an issue with google docs causing it to take a few seconds to update (it is instantaneous locally with MS excel) but I hope it can still be of use to a few of you.Cheers,
Jez+0February 15, 2016 at 7:04 pm
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Thanks Jez
+0Thanks Jez. Any update on the acca calculator you were mentioning last night?
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Thanks Jeremy
+0Thanks Jez I’ll take a look at this. Can I just ask (pardon my ignorance) but the tabs on top is that relevant to each leg1 leg2 of a 6 etc or is it to do with the amount of legs your acc consists of ?
+0Is there a special way to download this and use in excel? lay stake and profit dont change?
If I click on the laystake box formula is showing iferror dummy functionthanks
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I must admit I’m not so familiar with Google docs, I don’t think it will be possible to download this as another file is doing the calculations behind the scenes. It does still appear to be working if you wait 2-3 seconds after entering the data for the stakes and profit cells to update. To answer devans question, each sheet is for an accumulator of different length, ie any acca only needs the one shee corresponding to its length.
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@deezer I will refrain from posting regarding that in keeping with Matts wishes, however the Google doc its self may be updated with any relevant info
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cheers jez
+0So basically it just uses the combined odds of each leg (after commission)?
It seems to assume that these are static. Would it not suffer badly if the lay odds of the last leg/legs went against you? There is some risk, no?
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@beh this is an inherent risk of laying off accumulators, in practice sways for/against us will cancel out however yes you can argue this is thus not risk free. However it would take an enormous swing to render a decently profitable acca into the red.
You are right that this file does assume they are static – as old lay stakes are recalculated once you update the lay odds which isn’t much use once the leg has ready taken place. A more sophisticated version of this in excel allows lays to be fixed once you place them so only future stakes are recalculated when lay odds are updated however this does not work in a public sheet such as this here.
+0Aye, you’d be quite unlucky to lose money on something as generous as the sky offer on Sunday. Giving a “guaranteed profit” figure at the outset might mislead some people not inclined to think it through. You’ll never know where you stand until laying the last leg (if it gets that far).
Getting a bit complicated perhaps but could do with some way of recalculating the next lay stake after each leg, assuming that the previous stake is fixed but the upcoming odds have changed. EDIT:hadn’t seen your edit. Great minds and such 🙂
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Very nice. Will be using both this and FoG’s spreadsheet. Cheers gents, very much appreciated.
+0First of all big, big thanks to everyone who has helped on this and all the other acca threads, I’ve finally got my head round the maths (I think!) and am just finishing my own spreadsheet. Couldn’t have done it without all the examples and formulas and everything people have posted, been a brain busting 2 weeks as maths not my best subject.
Anyway the sequential lay sheet, my question is does this work for accas where you get your stake back if 1 leg loses? My thinking so far has been using the stake returned option, not laying until 1 leg loses and covering myself till the end. The part i’m unsure of now is how much to lay for the 2nd match after 1 leg has lost.
Eg Leg 1 lost at bookie,
Leg 2 = lay acca stake. Win at bookie= chance free bet & lost liability
Win at exchange = no free bet & stake backLeg 3 = if leg 2 won at bookie do I just lay the lost liability or liability plus acca stake
if leg 2 won at exchange i’ll have my acca stake back and I think I just stop thereAny help is greatly appreciated.
Thanks to all the users who have posted in the acca threads
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First off thanks for the share jeremy, secondly please bare with me here as ive never did a acca lay bet yet. when i type in my odds for the picks i choose & then all adjusts to what should be as in what figures to lay, what about the result W/L column ? we have option to put win or lose? well as i understand we would be putting our first bet on at bookie for our acca & obviously we put the acca figure in & then start with first lay of acca & add those odds to lay but before that match starts , do i put win or lose in the results column? I just need a basic briefing of how to start i believe then i should be fine
thanks in advance
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@johnny: Stake and odds obiously come from the bookie – commision corresponds to what ever enhance you choose to lay off the bets. The next step is to fill in current lay odds for each leg (leaving w/l column blank). Now lay the first stake given: If this leg wins select win from the list and the lay stake for the next leg will be given, repeat until all legs have won, otherwise If a leg loses the sheet just says end as the acca is dead but you have made the profit from the lay stake(s)
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