Skybet Boost for the gubbed
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So there is some talk about this lately.
I decided to look at this week with Leicester/Stoke/West Brom boosted to 10.0 which has boosted the odds on the exchange to 9.2/9.4.
If you use the lay odds of each game as an estimate of the true probability then you have 1.89*1.99*2.22=8.35….
So the back odds of 9.2 is good value. Even taking away commission 9.2 is effective odds 8.79. If you bet £100 on it every week then it would be about £5 profit per week on average. It’s not a lot until you realise you can scale it up…..
38 weeks times 5 is £190 profit over the season on £100 stakes. I am not sure how that is a 100% return on investment as to be staking £100’s you would need a bank roll of at least £1000….
I don’t see that there is much margin though. Mark mentioned he lays off the individual legs to minimise variance but that surely eats into the small margin quite a bit…..
Anyway not passing any judgement. Just starting a conversation….