Skybet Boost for the gubbed

  • So there is some talk about this lately.

    I decided to look at this week with Leicester/Stoke/West Brom boosted to 10.0 which has boosted the odds on the exchange to 9.2/9.4.

    If you use the lay odds of each game as an estimate of the true probability then you have 1.89*1.99*2.22=8.35….

    So the back odds of 9.2 is good value. Even taking away commission 9.2 is effective odds 8.79. If you bet £100 on it every week then it would be about £5 profit per week on average. It’s not a lot until you realise you can scale it up…..

    38 weeks times 5 is £190 profit over the season on £100 stakes. I am not sure how that is a 100% return on investment as to be staking £100’s you would need a bank roll of at least £1000….

    I don’t see that there is much margin though. Mark mentioned he lays off the individual legs to minimise variance but that surely eats into the small margin quite a bit…..

    Anyway not passing any judgement. Just starting a conversation….

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    Dave_Jones 9

    @ Jdrobbo I suspect a lot of work has gone into the production of a spread sheet that calculates these lay stakes for Mark. I would be very surprised if he would give that information away for free. I am not sure if people have realised it, but provided one has a large enough trading bank, there is huge potential in what he posted in this thread.

    The handy thing is too, that you are not going to get gubbed, although the question of the PC charge might start to become a consideration after a while. I think its 5% after £5k if profit and can go up to 60%, having said that I think you need to earn about £250k before you pay that, which would be a nice problem to worry about.

    @ Mark, I have seen hints and whispers on other forums that Betfair traders are doing something similar to what you are doing, the Kelly criterion has been mentioned in that past as a way of sizing ones bets. I don’t recall however anyone using standard deviation to optimise the Kelly sizing system. Did you come up with this yourself or is it a common method used by hedge funds and similar?

    Also have you noticed that the odds on the individual games that are part of the Acca have started to edge up since you started doing this due to traders doing something similar but not quite as sophisticated as what you are doing?

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 59

    I thought that I would bump this thread!

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