WH – Richard Johnson Treble (Thursday 11 Feb)

Hills have various enhanced doubles/trebles each day and usually they are not worth looking into. Today, however, they have a Richard Johnson treble (under Horse Racing > Specials on the app) priced at 7.5

This treble is for 3 of his rides at Doncaster today all TO BE PLACED (not to win!):

13:45 – Chase End Charlie (1.65)
14:20 – Bantam (1.23)
14:55 – Deadly Approach (2.04)

Using sequential laying at these prices, all from the “To be Placed” market on Betfair, you can take a risk free shot at a profit of £61.83 (from a £20 initial stake).

Maths:
Bet £20 on the treble at Hills – returns £150

Lay £21.05 at 1.65 – liability £13.89
Lay £35.67 at 1.23 – liability £8.20
Lay £44.31 at 2.04 – liability £46.08

So, if all 3 do indeed place, then you are left with:

£150 – 20 – 13.89 – 8.20 – 46.08 = £61.83 🙂

As soon as one does not place, stop laying and break even, losing nothing.

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Tony
12

February 11, 2016 at 11:03 am

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Pavlon 3 February 11, 2016 at 11:18 am

This looks very good Tony. Many thanks. I’ll check it out shortly.

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Matt
Keymaster
1493 February 11, 2016 at 11:20 am

Great spot Tony! I don’t think I’ve seen a ‘sequential lay’ offer with as big a potential profit!

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silverbirch 0 February 11, 2016 at 11:23 am

Is ‘place’ the same definition on WH as smarkets/bf? ie. top 4?

EDIT: Top 3!

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dangerzone14 12 February 11, 2016 at 11:30 am

cheers for the post Tony. Just one question, if the lay stakes change, how do we recalculate them? I’m terrible at the maths

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Chris 19 February 11, 2016 at 11:32 am

Good spot indeed and great that all three races include a third place finish as a place win.

So basically, you’re underlaying each horse as you go along?

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silverbirch 0 February 11, 2016 at 11:36 am

I think I will underlay until the last race (if it goes that far) then overlay for a guaranteed £30

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Tony 12 February 11, 2016 at 12:02 pm

Yes, the maths and stakes above show me underlaying all 3 races. I might do as @denizlikarakoy says though and lock in profit if the first two are indeed placed.

In terms of recalculating lays stakes if the odds move (which they will!), your first lay stake will always be £21.05 (£20 / 0.95).

You then need to take the liability that that bet gives and add it to the initial £20, then allow for commission (i.e. divide by 0.95) to arrive at your lay stake for the second race.

Rinse and repeat for the third race if you are underlaying, making sure to add (initial £20 + first race liability + second race liability) / 0.95 = lay stake for third race.

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Chris 19 February 11, 2016 at 12:05 pm

And for those of you still using smarkets, it’s divide by 0.98 for the commission.

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Pavlon 3 February 11, 2016 at 12:08 pm

I layed Chase End Charlie for 1.65 as well, but see he’s now laying at 1.71. We probably need to get on laying Bantam quick if CEC places.

I can’t watch these races, as I’m at work, so can someone post the result as soon as it occurs?

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devans 0 February 11, 2016 at 12:09 pm

Looks good. Just wondering how do you work out the lay bets for each leg, and of course if the odds change how do you revisit them ?
#headwork

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Chris 19 February 11, 2016 at 12:12 pm

From what I can tell, there is no stake limit on this either.

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Matt
Keymaster
1493 February 11, 2016 at 12:20 pm

I’ve just blogged this with full workings so feel free to take a look > https://matchedbettingblog.com/horse-racing/william-hill-offer-richard-johnson-enhanced-treble

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Chris 19 February 11, 2016 at 12:20 pm

Wouldnt worry about getting the second race quick (although we dont have much time anyway) as Bantam to place lay odds are and will be really short regardless of what time we get on it. For the third race though, yes.

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Pavlon 3 February 11, 2016 at 12:32 pm

Chris – can you post the result straight away for me? Or drop me a text?

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Blank 0 February 11, 2016 at 12:36 pm

Managed to get £50 in this with hills, thought their boosts were normally £20max!?!

Noticed the lay odds aren’t full of liquidity, and could change quite a bit, still there is plenty of value in this even if they do. Let’s hope the first one doesn’t come in then it’s no worry!

What’s thoughts on laying the second one in advance of first race? If first one places the odds will shoot up but i’d already be in, if it doesn’t place I should be able to get out for a small loss?? Is it worth it??

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