WH – Richard Johnson Treble (Thursday 11 Feb)

Hills have various enhanced doubles/trebles each day and usually they are not worth looking into. Today, however, they have a Richard Johnson treble (under Horse Racing > Specials on the app) priced at 7.5

This treble is for 3 of his rides at Doncaster today all TO BE PLACED (not to win!):

13:45 – Chase End Charlie (1.65)
14:20 – Bantam (1.23)
14:55 – Deadly Approach (2.04)

Using sequential laying at these prices, all from the “To be Placed” market on Betfair, you can take a risk free shot at a profit of £61.83 (from a £20 initial stake).

Maths:
Bet £20 on the treble at Hills – returns £150

Lay £21.05 at 1.65 – liability £13.89
Lay £35.67 at 1.23 – liability £8.20
Lay £44.31 at 2.04 – liability £46.08

So, if all 3 do indeed place, then you are left with:

£150 – 20 – 13.89 – 8.20 – 46.08 = £61.83 🙂

As soon as one does not place, stop laying and break even, losing nothing.

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Tony
13

February 11, 2016 at 11:03 am

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kjillman 1 February 11, 2016 at 2:40 pm

totally underlayed at 2.6 so max profit or lose nothing,expecting horse to do crap now start well and then totally tail off

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Tony S 8 February 11, 2016 at 2:41 pm

Punted the first two… So layed Deadly Approach @ 2.38 for £50… So decent profit either way… It’s been emotional mind

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Pavlon 3 February 11, 2016 at 2:42 pm

Ok, layed for £86.31 profit if it places, or break even if it doesn’t.

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Chris 22 February 11, 2016 at 2:45 pm

But how do we account for the losses we have taken at the exchange on the first two coming in? Cant work it out.

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RyanB 15 February 11, 2016 at 2:46 pm

Wow pavlon what was your intial stake? I put £50 and my profit will only be £53? £46 liability first race, £22.88 and now £201.80. 325 – the lost is 53…did you not get as high liability on the others or am I added this up wrong..

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Tony 13 February 11, 2016 at 2:46 pm

Thanks all, had a brain fart and couldn’t figure that out for myself for some reason (sighs) 🙂

Underlayed in the end – seeing as I thought the first leg had lost, I figured what the hell!!

COME ON Deadly Approach! 😀

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Chris 22 February 11, 2016 at 2:47 pm

Theres been a withdrawal so rule 4 will apply to any winnings on this leg.

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RyanB 15 February 11, 2016 at 2:48 pm

Ignore me my liability on this last race is 173..so im looking at 81 profit if it comes in…please!!!

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LJH 1 February 11, 2016 at 2:49 pm

Overlaid it so £33ish profits if not placed, £40 if it does.

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Pavlon 3 February 11, 2016 at 2:49 pm

Ryan – hopefully I’ve worked it out correctly(!), but I layed the first race before the price went up, and layed the second race before the first race went out. Total loss to be covered (incl 5% commission) is £121.81. I’ve got that at avg lay odds of 2.42. So I’ve underlayed this last race – is that what you’ve done, or are you in profit either way?

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silverbirch 0 February 11, 2016 at 2:49 pm

It is always useful to have an excel spreadsheet put together with all your planned bets/lays so you can just punch in the new odds, adjust your stakes and decide how much you want to lay

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RyanB 15 February 11, 2016 at 2:51 pm

Gone for £81 profit or nothing. Fingere crossed.

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kjillman 1 February 11, 2016 at 2:52 pm

chris add up the 2 losses and the £20 stake divide by 0.95 betfair or 0.98 smarkets and then lay amount for a profit or you lose nothing if it doesn’t win

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Chris 22 February 11, 2016 at 2:52 pm

Muthabir 2nd, Deadly Approach 3rd.

Please.

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Chris 22 February 11, 2016 at 2:53 pm

Thanks Ryan, I got that though it was the guaranteed profit outcome I was asking about. Nevermind though, just done it as suggested.

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