WH – Richard Johnson Treble (Thursday 11 Feb)

  • Hills have various enhanced doubles/trebles each day and usually they are not worth looking into. Today, however, they have a Richard Johnson treble (under Horse Racing > Specials on the app) priced at 7.5

    This treble is for 3 of his rides at Doncaster today all TO BE PLACED (not to win!):

    13:45 – Chase End Charlie (1.65)
    14:20 – Bantam (1.23)
    14:55 – Deadly Approach (2.04)

    Using sequential laying at these prices, all from the “To be Placed” market on Betfair, you can take a risk free shot at a profit of £61.83 (from a £20 initial stake).

    Maths:
    Bet £20 on the treble at Hills – returns £150

    Lay £21.05 at 1.65 – liability £13.89
    Lay £35.67 at 1.23 – liability £8.20
    Lay £44.31 at 2.04 – liability £46.08

    So, if all 3 do indeed place, then you are left with:

    £150 – 20 – 13.89 – 8.20 – 46.08 = £61.83 🙂

    As soon as one does not place, stop laying and break even, losing nothing.

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    Chris 22

    Lots of money coming in for the 3rd favourite now.

    +0
    RyanB 15

    Not sure what to do if the next one comes in…underlay again for £120 profit or what….

    +0
    Chris 22

    Jeez, some of the worst lay odds I’ve seen

    +0
    LJH 1

    I know. Probably won’t go for it but I just hate regretting afterwards..

    +0
    Tony 13

    Someone please remind me how to go about ensuring same profit whether the last leg comes in or not?

    My brain is fried and other than trial and error on the lay box in Betfair/Smarkets I can’t work it out?!?

    +0
    Chris 22

    2nd easy

    +0
    Logan 1

    Bantam placed. 2nd.

    +0
    LJH 1

    yep. hating myself right now

    +0
    RyanB 15

    Now to underlay this offer again for the full 120!?!?

    +0
    Chris 22

    Well I couldnt lay it off, waited for it to go “in play” and even though he led from the off and only lost by a quarter length the lay odds never went below 9.8 so I’ve got a free bet but an overall loss depending on what I get out of it.

    +0
    RyanB 15

    Lay odds gone up alot probably half of what the intial potential profit was now

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    Tony 13

    Lay price has totally drifted out on this last leg 🙁

    Might just fully underlay it again, unless someone can tell me how to balance it for the same profit either way?

    +0
    RyanB 15

    I fully underlayd @2.6 for a £53 profit (£50 stake on the enhancement) if it doesnt win ah well lost nothing!

    +0
    Nolan Ryan 0

    Work out what you’ve lost on the 2 lay bets so far, then take that off the total profit you would win if the whole thing came in. Divide that by your stake and +1 to get your back odds.

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    Matt
    Keymaster
    1600

    (Potential returns on treble) / Lay odds – commission

    So if you staked £50.00…

    £50.00 x 7.50 = £375.00

    £375.00 / (Lay odds – 0.02).

    Looking at around £30.00+ but it’s more profitable long-term to underlay it for £120ish…

    +0
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