Will bookies catch me? Early prices
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Hi lads, I’m sick of giving away so much on qualifying losses and tried waiting for an arb in the recent days. It’s been a great success, got an arb on every bet I wanted to arb – however a bloke said bookies will gub me for doing that? I know they can’t find out when I place my lay bet on smarkets, what if I’m just busy and want to place my bet for an offer early? Do you reckon this leads to gubbings?
+0January 24, 2017 at 2:05 pm
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Tony, the point being made is that no-one can guarantee that a bet will win. you can find all the close odds and post them here all you like, but no-one knows whether they will win or not. if we did we’d all be millionaires.
By all means back and lay something at short odds and hope it comes in, but it might not.Good luck.
+0Seriously, if I could lose my entire bookie balances to the exchange then I’d happily take a weekend off to withdraw and redeposit.
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New Tony, what I’d do in your situation is put as much as you can on Man U at Will Hills at 1.5 as the lay on Smarkets is 1.49. Not guaranteed, but a fair chance.
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@absolutely numb Tony, I’ll lend ya 100 notes for 200 back Monday?!…
+0He’s trying to win money at the bookies hate horses, away from home with a first leg lead and 1.5/1.49. I backed that as a mug bet hoping to shift cash to the exchange
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Why don’t you back and lay something around evens. Then you’ll have a 50/50 chance of having £300ish in your bookie accoun and will be able to do some offers.
If it doesn’t come in then take a weekend off (or have a chat with those nice chaps at Wonga)…
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If youd withdrawn a grand from smarkets when you first asked youd have probably got it in your account by today. Its a better risk than what your planning to do unless you can find a dutch somewhere with a bookie and smarkets which is doubtful. If your money is in 365 you may find a not to place and to place dutch somewhere. Or maybe try to find a arb close to the off on a horse race. You really dont want to be taking a qualifying loss.
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Oh and out of interest how you planning to multi when youve got cashflow problems now?
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Money’s in skybet Pickle
+0Forgive me as I’m still new to the technical lingo so a lot of this goes over my head. If I only find arbs before horse race begins, ie I’m betting on the starting price and laying elsewhere for a profit, how would the bookmaker know I’m an Arber? I would imagine most bets would lose and a few May win, so in the long run from the bookmaker perspective they aren’t losing out with me right? Or is it the case that arbs just don’t exist until in play?
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If you’re consistently beating the exchange lay odds, you’re taking value at the bookmaker, which means you’ll profit in the long term.
Bookmakers monitor betting patterns, so eventually, they’ll know you’re beating their odds and restrict your account.
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