Will bookies catch me? Early prices
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Hi lads, I’m sick of giving away so much on qualifying losses and tried waiting for an arb in the recent days. It’s been a great success, got an arb on every bet I wanted to arb – however a bloke said bookies will gub me for doing that? I know they can’t find out when I place my lay bet on smarkets, what if I’m just busy and want to place my bet for an offer early? Do you reckon this leads to gubbings?
+0January 24, 2017 at 2:05 pm
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Don’t worry too much about trying to avoid a gubbing!… if you work on the premise that you’re gonna get gubbed sooner or later, don’t pass up profit trying to protect potential profit!
The only time I’d take my foot off and let offers go by is just before a big meet… Cheltenham etc where it’s miles more lucrative to hold off
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I’ll always take a small arb on qualifying bets if possible. In a popular race on a popular sport there will be enough mugs making the same bet that you won’t stand out.
I’m not really sure about what gets you gubbed. Some bookie’s seem to be a knee jerk reaction to a big win on big odds. Others seem to consider long term value you are taking. But most just do a big cull every now and then based on some criteria that we don’t know – probably analyse the proportion of bets you have on offers or how often you beat SP…..
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What’s your tactic about arbs on QF bets Fog? And please explain that beating the SP thing!
+0All horse races have an official starting price. The bookies can track how often on average you get better odds than this sp.
Like has been said don’t worry about it – they don’t know when u lay or that u do lay. U could quite easily back a horse with a hefty ql then it could steam in afterwards meaning you beat SP.
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Took a massive L today with my tactics. Backed a damn donkey at 6.00 in Betfred and wanted to wait for an arb at the moment of placing odds were 6.50 so I thought defo going down are they. Never did, lowest they got afterwards was 6.80, 5 minutes before the race – 8.40. Massive L, I learn from my mistakes but I could do with some advice and practice.
+0A while ago I started doing arbs on a couple of different bookies – even though I lost all the bets with the bookies, within a few days, I was gubbed. They DO care about you getting arbs. Maybe do one every now and again, but you need to show you aren’t always taking the best value from them.
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I’m sure bookies do watch to see who’s betting on arbs, and its pretty easy for them to assume that when you place a bet and can see on the exchanges what the prices are (the same as you can), they could even watch the money going in and out of the prices and compare your bet with a corresponding lay (the same as you can). I doubt if they bother doing that, just give you a damn good gubbing for taking a price that’s better than the other bookies and exchanges, I’m just saying its simple enough to do.
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Wearing my cynical hat…..think about what you’d do if you were the bookie. If a punter was taking value in any way (promos, free bets, arbs, greater than SP, etc) then its a sensible business decision to restrict or gub their account. If they don’t do this, then the bookmaker will lose out over the long term. This is assuming they have proper controls in place to monitor punter’s bets, which I assume not all of them do.
My view is that I will get banned/restricted/gubbed from every bookmaker in the end, so I may as well make as much £££ as possible during my matched betting ‘career’. However there are ways to get around this as e/w arbing seems to have shown, and there’s always multi accounting, sharbing, etc too.
In terms of trying to get a low QL or a QP, I’d suggest always taking the available lay assuming it’s reasonable UNLESS the amount of liquidity in the exchange is significantly less on the back side, in which case I’d queue my lay bet. I’ve been stung before waiting for my lay to match, which subsequently hasn’t happened. At the end of the day, it’s matched betting not gambling!
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So Tony, you are taking an early price and hoping it comes in? That’s not really arbing at all. An arb is when two bookies, or a bookie and the exchange have two different prices at the same time and you can back both for guaranteed profit. What you are doing is more like trading in my opinion – you’re trying to read the market and predict which horses will shorten.
They might get you for beating SP but I doubt it. They are probably more concerned that all your bets are on offer races.
What you are doing is risky – as you found out. When the price drifted though from 6.5 out to 8.4. You were sitting on 6.0 but really it was possibly 8.0 (what was his SP) taking BOG into account. 8/8.4 is only a £3.22 QL on a £50 stake but I am guessing that you calculated your lay based on 6/8.4 in which case on a £50 stake QL is £14.92.
The way that I used to get low QL was just before the off. The odds on the exchange often move pretty fast. If a horse begins to shorten the bookie is often about 30 seconds behind so you can get 5.0/4.9 often enough …. You just get it with experience and feel it out for yourself. Its kind of hard to explain what you are looking for. There are some things
1. like the other poster mentioned the amount of money on the lay and back side of the bet might show what direction the price is likely to go.
2. If one horse is drifting out then makes sense that another is going to shorten.
3. If the overall overround is quite low on the exchange (eg on the top on smarkets where is says AGAINST(89.28%) – this should ideally be very close to 100%) then its likely that there is room in the market for some of the prices to come in further so you can hold on to see if your horse can come in another couple of percentages.
4. If the bookie price is higher than the industry norm then perhaps there might be value there.
5. I’ve noticed other things like when I check the price in the morning and maybe it has drifted, often it comes back down to the norm.
6. You’re also looking at how much money has been matched, because its nice seeing that in theory someone wants to back or lay at a certain price but when you see the actual volume money actually already matched it boosts your confidence that the market price is realistic – that someone will take your bet.
7. Timing is key too, depends on the day, seems to be when the previous race finishes ppl turn their focus to the next and the market comes alive with prices drifting and shortening and a lot of money coming on.A lot of it is common sense, and understanding the market.
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Great post FoG – I admire your ability to persist with delivering the same message(s) over and over again when they are asked in different ways, in different threads and in different subforums.
If only we could get more sticky posts on here to direct people to; there is a wealth of excellent posts on here, scattered all over the place amongst the clutter.
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Thanks Tony.
There are some things that I wont answer any more like rollover requirements or anything to do with 4/1+ offer!
I enjoy the forum though, its an interesting and diverse bunch of ppl from Maths heads, to ex-gamblers anonymous, to horse enthusiasts, to ppl with just too much free time on their hands. Its … interesting. And most ppl are alright here.
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Do Betfred and Tote even offer BOG?
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I dont know Tony. I had a betfred account for 2 weeks a long time ago and lost it.
If you’re not getting BOG then I think its far too risky to get on early prices and gamble on them shortening.
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Why not check for yourself other Tony?
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that prompted me to look at the T+Cs, what does “The offer does not apply to prices taken after the first show” mean? I’m not a horsey person so I’m guessing its to do with final declarations?
TIA+0
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