Will bookies catch me? Early prices
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Hi lads, I’m sick of giving away so much on qualifying losses and tried waiting for an arb in the recent days. It’s been a great success, got an arb on every bet I wanted to arb – however a bloke said bookies will gub me for doing that? I know they can’t find out when I place my lay bet on smarkets, what if I’m just busy and want to place my bet for an offer early? Do you reckon this leads to gubbings?
+0January 24, 2017 at 2:05 pm
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When I checked this for myself a while ago I asked the same question and I think the answer given was that “first show” meant when they come out to parade, but I am sure one of the experienced horse followers will tell us…
+0@FoG – great post. Especially the point on BOG – I’ve never thought about it like that before (in that you could back beforehand, and if the price has drifted, just before the off, you can use the SP as your back calculation).
Interested in what @deathstar said above – what offer was that on?
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@bobster You can use the SP to recalculate your lay stake yes, but you need to be careful as you can get stung by the odds contracting just before the off. The odds can often shorten by a tick or two at the last minute. In those circumstances you will have overcompensated your lay and thus be out of pocket if your nag wins.
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@deathstar Even if that is right, you would think that there must be an arbitrary number of minutes before the race that represent the line between before and after “first show”, although none of the googling I did turned up an answer. Possibly yet another example of an unwritten rule that allows bookies to wiggle out of not paying more than they have to!
Would be good if one of the horsey know-it-alls could confirm? 😉
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you’re right because you could argue the cut off point for the first horse out in the “first show” would be quite a few minutes earlier than the last one out. It does seem like an unnecessary rule that has only been put there for wriggle room by fred, seeing as almost every other bookie i’ve looked at has the cut off as whether it comes under starters orders or not.
+0The show prices ( or board prices) are when they switch from their ‘early prices’ to the track prices and everything pretty much aligns. Usually 10-15 mins before the race, and probably the ‘clockwork price adjustment spoken about in the high 5 post
I didn’t realise some dropped bog then. Another one to watch along with when it begins. Fell foul by 45 mins of placing my bets 8.15 today with no lays, thinking I got out jail in the last then finding out I hadn’t!
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What do YOU think the logical answer to that might be?
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Matchie will know – he hardly ever wins at the exchange.
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I don’t know Tony S or at least not entirely sure that’s why I want to ask 🙂 I was thinking about using the Qualifying bet calculator on here and putting for example 100 as the stake and something with low odds that will probably come in?
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Newbie Tony. You can’t pick and choose which bets win or lose. Some ppl believe they can but I don’t.
Just withdraw and deposit. If you don’t have enough time then take a weekend off.
At least that is how I would play it. You could gamble on winning at bookie/losing at exchange but if the lay wins then your situation is even worse.
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I’d say your best bet is put a fiver acca on tonight and hope it comes in. You may even want to try betstars spin and bet you could win a fortune. Or perhaps have a few quid on the slots.
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Let’s say for example: (counting that as a QF bet on the calculator)
Putting 100 at the bookies on over 0.5 in Hull game at 1.25 (imaginary odds)
Odds on smarkets 1.29 so I lay 98.43. All correct or am I making some foolish mistake and if there’s over 0.5 at Hull I’ve moved the money from Smarkets to the bookie, no? By the way Foggy I don’t really care if the exchange wins it, I’ll just go on!+0
Thanks for everyone’s help and the replies by the way.
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