Will Hill acca insurance lay example

  • I am going to go through laying a william hill acca to make it near risk free if more than 1 keg loses, and profit if one or zero loses.

    Matches:

    1. Ath Bilbao v Villarreal – 1.91 – 1.94
    2. Juventus v Verona – 1.17 – 1.21
    3. Barcelona v Espanyol – 1.1 – 1.13
    4. Eibar v Las Palmas – 1.95 – 1.97
    5. Paris St-G v Bastia – 1.1 – 1.12
    6. Real Madrid v Deportivo – 1.17 – 1.18

    Using the matched calculator to work out qualifying loss for each one with 0% commission.

    0.16 + 0.33 + 0.27 + 0.1 + 0.18 + 0.09 = 1.13
    10 – 1.13 = 8.87

    So first lay stake is £8.87.

    If leg 1 wins you would lose £8.34. To get the next lay stake add what you would have won(if leg lost) to the loss then times by 1.02.
    Would have won 8.87*0.98 = 8.69
    8.69+8.34 = 17.03
    17.03*1.02 = 17.37

    Second lay stake is £ 17.37.

    If they keep winning continue with this method until the last leg, when you underlay.

    If a leg loses you lay the loss so far times by 1.02.

    So if 1st leg lost the loss would have been 10 – 8.69 = -£1.31. (acca stake – lay win)
    So stake 1.31*1.02 = £1.34 on leg 2.
    If leg 2 loses you break even.
    If leg 2 wins you do the same as when laying acca, add loss from that leg to what you were trying to win then times by 1.02.(1.31+0.28).

    So if leg 2 wins next stake is £1.63. Keep doing this method until a second loss then stop.

    You can guarantee a profit by underlaying/overlaying, but this is my method for laying accas.
    With the william hill bonus you would want do overlay each leg.

    With this method the only risks are some odds changing so by the end if they keep winning it may not profit but with good close back/lay odds it should work out(underlaying some of the middle legs can eliminate this risk). Also the 1st lay can be too low sometimes so depending on the acca increasing the 1st lay stake can be good.

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    smothy17 0

    What’s the profit of 1 leg loses, and what’s the profit if 0 legs lose?

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    Andy 1

    It varies depending on lay stakes and which leg loses so there is no set profit figure. This method is not going to give specific profits and you should alter some lay stakes(for example underlaying the higher odds when not first or last leg, eibar in this example).

    I did work out even without underlaying eibar you could make £3-4 profit if it wins thanks to %10 win bonus and £6-7 profit if last leg loses(unlikely as it’s madrid). This is from a £10 stake.

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    swindonraf 0

    Is the 1.02 for commission ?

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    Andy 1

    Yes, it is to take account of 2% commission otherwise the lay would not win the amount wanted.

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    Adam 0

    You’d want to divide by 0.98 instead of multiply by 1.02. It only makes a subtle difference though having said that

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    Drogs 0

    What are the figures in working out your first lay stake? Could you not just lay so you make back your original outlay on the acca i.e £10.20 with 2% commision? In your example you will lose money if the first leg loses right?

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    Andy 1

    In my example I carry on laying till 2 loses. After 1 loss You lay what you have lost up until that point(you can lay slightly more to guarantee profit on the acca). The reason you are able to do this is you know you can extract 80% from the free bet that you get if the rest win from there.

    The reason I have done that and not cover losses initially as you said is if the 1st 5 win the liability can be to high to make any profit on the last leg.

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    mike j 10

    Top notch andy. I guess it all comes down to finding tight odds – which is time comsuming

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    swindonraf 0

    I’m trying a new approach and will post my results on here.

    I’m thinking you’re wasting money laying on the first, second bet etc of the bets keep winning and the chances are quite good of winning at low odds 1.25 and lower.

    I’m going to let each match go until I get one loser, then when I only stand the chance of getting my stake back, lay on the next game enough to break even.

    I have 2 running today both have won the first 3 games easily

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    Andy 1

    If you don’t lay until a loser you can not then lay to get your stake back as if the rest win you will have lost the initial stake and then the liabilities from those layed, the free bet will not cover those losses.

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    swindonraf 0

    So one 4th game of 6 has lost the other won.

    On the one that won I could cash out now for £40 profit

    On the one that lost I have laid against the win with £13.

    If this games loses I get my stake back

    If it wins I’ll just do the same again on the last bet to get the free bet

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    MarkCorrigan 6

    Please don’t listen to @swindonraf… he/she is talking utter nonsense.

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    swindonraf 0

    I’m experimenting, taking one for the team

    At the moment it’s working

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    MarkCorrigan 6

    Experimenting how exactly?

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    mike j 10

    Hello again guys. First of all props to Andy and mark for shedding light on this whole subject. I have a question

    Coral offer money back if 2 legs fail on a 9 leg acca. Do you think if we placed one of these we could not lay any bets until one leg looses, then lay as usual to ensure £0 loss. The further we get into the acca without a loss, the more guaranteed profit we make or have I missed something obvious. Am not at home so can’t punch the numbers into my spreadsheet

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