Premier League Darts 2018 Offers – Week 4

It’s Week 4 of the Premier League Darts 2018 tonight and the bookies are getting in on the action! There are some great offers available each week, so provided we minimise our qualifying losses, we stand a great chance of making some big profits and here’s how…

Available Offers:

Bookie Offer
Betway Bets settled as a winner (up to £25.00) if your selection loses 7-5
BoyleSports Double winnings (max. stake £20.00) if your selection wins with a 100+ checkout
Paddy Power Money back (up to £10.00) on Correct Score and #WhatOddsPaddy bets if the match ends in a draw

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

The strategy is the same for all three offers. We just need to select players with tight back and lay odds in order to minimise our qualifying losses and hope we hit the money back/double winnings triggers.

Here are the eligible matches for Week 4 (Thursday 22nd February 2018)…

Time Match
19:15 Michael Smith v Simon Whitlock
20:00 Gerwyn Price v Mensur Suljovic
20:40 Michael van Gerwen v Daryl Gurney
21:15 Rob Cross v Raymond van Barneveld
22:00 Peter Wright v Gary Anderson

The following example is for the Betway offer. Having looked at the odds available for Michael Smith v Simon Whitlock, we could place our qualifying bet on Michael Smith.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity and the site is really easy to use.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £25.11…

Betway logo

Place £25.00 on Michael Smith @ 2.20 = Potential profit of £30.00

Betfair logo

Lay £25.11 on Michael Smith @ 2.24 = Potential liability of £31.13

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Michael Smith wins + £30.00 – £31.13 = £1.13 loss
Michael Smith loses 7-5 + £25.00 + £23.85 (£25.11 minus 5% commission) = £48.85 profit
Michael Smith doesn’t win by other scoreline – £25.00 + £23.85 = £1.15 loss

So, if Michael Smith loses 7-5, we’ll make a nice profit of £48.85. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £1.15. Risking £1.15 to make a profit of £48.85, gives us effective odds of 43.48. So, given that the odds of Michael Smith losing 7-5 are 6.50, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

I’ll update the following tables with some actual selections after the matches have been played…

Betway Offer

Match Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Qualifying Loss Potential Profit
Smith v Whitlock Smith 2.20 2.24 £1.13 £48.85

BoyleSports Offer

Match Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Qualifying Loss Potential Profit
Smith v Whitlock Smith 2.20 2.24 £0.91 £17.09
Price v Suljovic Suljovic 2.20 2.26 £1.08 £16.92

Paddy Power Offer

Match Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Qualifying Loss Potential Profit

* No bonus/refund triggers were hit, resulting in an overall loss of £3.12 on these Premier League Darts offers. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.