Chelsea visit Rome in the Champions League tonight and 138 are getting in on the action! If Edin Dzeko or Alvaro Morata score first in Roma v Chelsea, 138 will refund losing Exact Score, HT/FT and First/Last Goalscorer bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £7.35 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 and 19:45 (kick-off) on Tuesday 31st October 2017, to be eligible.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 1-1 draw in the Exact Score market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.55…
Place £10.00 on a 1-1 draw @ 8.00 = Potential profit of £70.00
Lay £9.55 on a 1-1 draw @ 8.40 = Potential liability of £70.67
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | + £70.00 – £70.67 = £0.67 loss |
| Not a 1-1 draw and Dzeko/Morata scores first | – £10.00 + £9.35 + £8.00 (extract 80% from our £10.00 free bet) = £7.35 profit |
| Not a 1-1 draw and Dzeko/Morata doesn’t score first | – £10.00 + £9.35 = £0.65 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £7.35 if the game isn’t drawn 1-1 and Dzeko or Morata scores first and we stand to lose a maximum of £0.67 on any other outcome. Risking £0.67 to make a profit of £7.35 gives us effective odds of 11.97, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Roma won the match 3-0 and the first goal was scored by El Shaarawy, meaning I made a loss of £0.65 on this 138 offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.