Arsenal host Crystal Palace in the late kick-off today and 188BET are getting in on the action. If Mesut Ozil scores any time during Arsenal v Crystal Palace, 188BET will refund losing First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams to Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £42.62 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00.01 and 16:00 on Sunday 17th April 2016 to be eligible.
Ideally, we would like to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score that sees Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet. This would ensure that we are eligible for a refund should Ozil find the net, as our qualifying bet would have lost. Unfortunately, the back and lay odds for those selections give us a rather large qualifying loss, so it’s best that we look elsewhere.
We need to place our qualifying bet at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss. It’s entirely up to you, what you place your qualifying bet on, but having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’. If Ozil manages to get on the scoresheet, all we will then need is a Crystal Palace goal to be eligible for a refund.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £46.04…
Place £50.00 on ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’ @ 1.86 = Potential profit of £43.00
Lay £46.04 on ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’ @ 2.04 = Potential liability of £47.88
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Someone keeps a clean sheet | + £43.00 – £47.88 = £4.88 loss |
| Both teams score and Ozil scores | – £50.00 + £45.12 + £47.50 (extract 95% from our £50.00 stake refund) = £42.62 profit |
| Both teams score and Ozil doesn’t score | – £50.00 + £45.12 = £4.88 loss |
So, if both teams score and Ozil scores, we will make a nice profit of £42.62 on this 188BET offer. If someone keeps a clean sheet or Ozil fails to find the net, we’ll have made a loss of £4.88. Risking £4.88 to make a profit of £42.62, gives us effective odds of 9.73. The odds on Ozil scoring are only 2.80, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this is a profitable offer in the long run.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £50.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘ozil50’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Monday 18th April 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.