188BET Offer – Bradford v Millwall

It’s the League One Play-Off Final at Wembley today and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! Simply place a bet on Bradford v Millwall and if the game goes to extra-time, 188BET will refund losing 1X2, First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a risk-free potential profit of £17.36 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Friday 19th May 2017 and 15:00 (kick-off) on Saturday 20th May 2017, to be eligible.

We need to place our qualifying bet on a 1X2, Correct Score or Half-Time/Full-Time selection that doesn’t see the match being drawn after 90 minutes. This ensures that if the match goes to extra-time, we’ll automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.

It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Bradford in the 1X2 market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.54…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on Bradford @ 2.75 = Potential profit of £43.75

smarkets white

Lay £23.54 on Bradford @ 2.94 = Potential liability of £45.66

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Bradford win in 90 minutes + £43.75 – £45.66 = £1.91 loss
Bradford don’t win and match goes to extra-time – £25.00 + £23.06 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £21.81 profit
Bradford don’t win and match doesn’t go to extra time – £25.00 + £23.06 = £1.94 loss

So, as things stand, if the match goes to extra-time, we’ll make a profit of £21.81. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £1.94.

We can actually make this offer risk-free by placing an extra lay bet on the match being a draw in 90 minutes. To work out our lay stake, we just need to divide our maximum potential loss of £1.94 by 0.98 (to account for the 2% commission) which gives us a lay stake of £1.98…

smarkets whiteLay £1.98 on a draw @ 3.25 = Potential liability of £4.45

Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Bradford win in 90 minutes – £1.91 + £1.94 = £0.03 profit
Bradford don’t win and match goes to extra-time + £21.81 – £4.45 = £17.36 profit
Bradford don’t win and match doesn’t go to extra time – £1.94 + £1.94 = £0.00

So, if the match doesn’t go to extra-time, we’ll have broken even and there’s no harm done. However, if the match does go to extra-time, we’ll have made a nice risk-free profit of £17.36.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘L125’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188bet.co.uk using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Sunday 21st May 2017. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.

NOTE: If you wish, you can overlay on the draw to guarantee yourself a profit on any outcome. To calculate your overlay stake on the draw, just divide £23.75 (the amount we expect to extract from our £25.00 stake refund) by the draw lay odds (minus 0.02 to account for the 2% commission at Smarkets).

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.