Chelsea face Man City in the Premier League tonight and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If Sergio Aguero scores at any time during Chelsea v Man City, 188BET will refund losing pre-match 1X2, First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £22.73 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Tuesday 4th April 2017 and 20:00 (kick-off) on Wednesday 5th April 2017, to be eligible.
Only losing bets are refunded in the event that Aguero scores, so we need to select something that we don’t think will come in. If Aguero scores for Man City, Chelsea would need to score at least two goals to stand a chance of winning, so I’ve therefore decided to place my qualifying bet on Chelsea in the ‘1X2’ market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.47…
Place £25.00 on Chelsea @ 2.31 = Potential profit of £32.75
Lay £24.47 on Chelsea @ 2.38 = Potential liability of £33.76
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Chelsea win | + £32.75 – £33.76 = £1.01 loss |
| Chelsea don’t win and Aguero scores | – £25.00 + £23.98 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.73 profit |
| Chelsea don’t win and Aguero doesn’t score | – £25.00 + £23.98 = £1.02 loss |
So, if Chelsea don’t win and Aguero scores, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.73. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £1.02. Risking £1.02 to make a profit of £22.73, gives us effective odds of 23.28, so given that the odds of Aguero scoring are only 2.40, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Chelsea not to win.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘SA25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188bet.co.uk using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Thursday 6th April 2017. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.
* Sergio Aguero scored for Man City but Chelsea won the match 2-1, meaning I made a loss of £1.01 on this 188BET offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.