Chelsea host Manchester City in the late kick-off on Saturday and 188BET are getting in on the action. If Diego Costa scores any time during Chelsea v Manchester City, 188BET will refund losing First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams to Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a risk-free potential profit of £9.15 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Friday 15th April 2016 and 17:30 on Saturday 16th April 2016 to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score that sees Manchester City keep a clean sheet. This ensures that if Costa scores, we will automatically be eligible for a refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 0-0 draw.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £20.72…
Place £25.00 on a 0-0 draw @ 12.00 = Potential profit of £275.00
Lay £20.72 on a 0-0 draw @ 14.50 = Potential liability of £279.70
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | + £275.00 – £279.70 = £4.70 loss |
| Not 0-0 draw and Costa scores | – £25.00 + £20.30 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £19.05 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and Costa doesn’t score | – £25.00 + £20.30 = £4.70 loss |
So, as things stand, if Costa scores, we will make a nice profit of £19.05. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £4.70.
By placing an extra lay bet on Diego Costa ‘To Score’ at the Betfair Exchange, we can actually make this offer risk-free. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide our potential loss of £4.70 by 0.95 (to account for the 5% commission) which gives us £4.95. At the time of writing, the lay odds are unavailable, but with back odds of 2.46, we should be able to get lay odds of around 3.00 as kick-off gets nearer…
Lay £4.95 on Costa ‘To Score’ @ 3.00 = Potential liability of £9.90
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | – £4.70 + £4.70 = £0.00 |
| Not 0-0 draw and Costa scores | £19.05 – £9.90 = £9.15 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and Costa doesn’t score | – £4.70 + £4.70 = £0.00 |
So, if the game finishes 0-0 or Costa doesn’t score, we’ll have broken even and there’s no harm done. However, if he does manage to score, we’ll have made a risk-free profit of £9.15 on this 188BET offer.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘COSTA25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Saturday 16th April 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.