It’s Germany v England tonight in Berlin and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a Tottenham or Leicester City player scores for England tonight against Germany, 188BET will refund losing First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Double Result bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £19.57 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
We need to select a Correct Score that sees Germany keep a clean sheet (not conceding). This ensures that if any Tottenham or Leicester City player scores for England, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 2-0 Germany win.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £21.24…
Place £25.00 on 2-0 Germany @ 7.80 = Potential profit of £170.00
Lay £21.24 on 2-0 Germany @ 9.20 = Potential liability of £174.18
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 2-0 Germany | + £170.00 – £174.18 = £4.18 loss |
| Not 2-0 Germany and Tottenham or Leicester player scores | – £25.00 + £20.82 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £19.57 profit |
| Not 2-0 Germany and no Tottenham or Leicester players score | – £25.00 + £20.82 = £4.18 loss |
So, if any Tottenham or Leicester City player scores for England, we will make a nice profit of £19.57 on this 188BET offer. If no Tottenham or Leicester City players score, we’ll have made a loss of £4.18. Risking £4.18 to make a profit of £19.57, gives us effective odds of 5.68, so given the fact that four Tottenham players are likely to start the game with a couple of Leicester City players on the bench, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £50.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘TL25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Sunday 27th March 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.