188BET Offer – Hull City v Derby County

Hull City are within touching distance of the Championship Play-Off Final after a 3-0 first leg win and 188BET are getting in on the action. If a red card is shown at any time during Hull City v Derby County, 188BET will refund losing pre-match 1X2, First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £22.04 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match to be eligible.

There is no way of making this offer risk-free, so we need to place our qualifying bet at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss.

It’s entirely up to you, what you place your qualifying bet on but having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a draw.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.76…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on a draw @ 3.45 = Potential profit of £61.25

smarkets whiteLay £23.76 on a draw @ 3.65 = Potential liability of £62.96

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Draw + £61.25 – £62.96 = £1.71 loss
Not a draw and there’s a red card – £25.00 + £23.29 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.04 profit
Not a draw and there’s no red card – £25.00 + £23.29 = £1.71 loss

So, if the game isn’t a draw and there’s a red card shown, we will make a nice profit of £22.04 on this 188BET offer. If there’s no red card or the match is drawn, we’ll have made a loss of £1.71. Risking £1.71 to make a profit of £22.04, gives us effective odds of 13.89, so given that the odds of a red card being shown are only 4.50 with some bookmakers, I’m sure you’ll agree this is a profitable offer in the long run.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘PLAYOFFRED’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Friday 20th May 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.