188BET Offer – Leicester City v Liverpool

Liverpool are the visitors to the King Power on Monday night and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If Roberto Firmino scores at any time during Leicester City v Liverpool, 188BET will refund losing pre-match First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £20.55 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Saturday 25th February 2017 and 20:00 (kick-off) on Monday 27th February 2017, to be eligible.

Only losing bets are refunded in the event that Firmino scores, so we need to select something that we don’t think will come in. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Draw/Draw in the ‘Half-Time/Full-Time’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.25…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on Draw/Draw @ 6.39 = Potential profit of £134.75

smarkets whiteLay £22.25 on Draw/Draw @ 7.20 = Potential liability of £137.95

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Draw/Draw + £134.75 – £137.95 = £3.20 loss
Not Draw/Draw and Firmino scores – £25.00 + £21.80 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £20.55 profit
Not Draw/Draw and Firmino doesn’t score – £25.00 + £21.80 = £3.20 loss

So, if Draw/Draw doesn’t come in and Firmino scores, we’ll make a nice profit of £20.55. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £3.20. Risking £3.20 to make a profit of £20.55, gives us effective odds of 7.42. So given that the odds of Firmino scoring are only 2.40, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need either team to be winning at half-time or full-time.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘RF25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188bet.co.uk using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Tuesday 28th February 2017. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.