188BET Offer – Liverpool v Dortmund

Liverpool face Dortmund tonight with a place in the Europa League Semi-Finals at stake and 188BET are getting in on the action. If Daniel Sturridge scores any time during Liverpool v Dortmund, 188BET will refund losing First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams to Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £42.14 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00.01 and 20.05 on Thursday 14th April 2016 to be eligible.

Ideally, we would like to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score that sees Dortmund keep a clean sheet. This would ensure that we are eligible for a refund should Sturridge find the net as our qualifying bet would have lost. Unfortunately, the back and lay odds for those selections give us a rather large qualifying loss, so it’s best that we look elsewhere.

We need to place our qualifying bet at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss. It’s entirely up to you, what you place your qualifying bet on, but having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’. If Sturridge manages to get on the scoresheet, all we will then need is a Dortmund goal to be eligible for a refund.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £45.55…

188BET logo

Place £50.00 on ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’ @ 2.15 = Potential profit of £57.50

smarkets whiteLay £45.55 on ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’ @ 2.38 = Potential liability of £62.86

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Someone keeps a clean sheet + £57.50 – £62.86 = £5.36 loss
Both teams score and Sturridge scores – £50.00 + £44.64 + £47.50 (extract 95% from our £50.00 stake refund) = £42.14 profit
Both teams score and Sturridge doesn’t score – £50.00 + £44.64 = £5.36 loss

So, if both teams score and Sturridge scores, we will make a nice profit of £42.14 on this 188BET offer. If someone keeps a clean sheet or Sturridge fails to find the net, we’ll have made a loss of £5.36. Risking £5.36 to make a profit of £42.14, gives us effective odds of 8.86. The odds on Sturridge scoring are only 2.30, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this is a profitable offer in the long run.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £50.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘daniel50’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Friday 15th April 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.

* I waited until the starting line-ups were announced before placing my qualifying bets. As Sturridge was left on the bench, I opted not to participate in this offer. It’s always a good idea to wait until the starting line-ups are announced before we get involved with these player-specific offers. I’ll add a note to that effect to future blog posts. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.