188BET Offer – Man City v Real Madrid

Manchester City will be looking to gain the upper hand against Real Madrid tonight and 188BET are getting in on the action. If Cristiano Ronaldo scores any time during Manchester City v Real Madrid, 188BET will refund losing First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams to Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £5.47 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Monday 25th April 2016 and 19:45 on Tuesday 26th April 2016 to be eligible.

We need to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score that sees Manchester City keep a clean sheet. This ensures that if Ronaldo scores, we will automatically be eligible for a refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 1-0 Manchester City win.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £21.70…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on 1-0 Man City @ 13.00 = Potential profit of £300.00

smarkets whiteLay £21.70 on 1-0 Man City @ 15.00 = Potential liability of £303.74

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

1-0 Man City + £300.00 – £303.74 = £3.74 loss
Not 1-0 Man City and Ronaldo scores – £25.00 + £21.26 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £20.01 profit
Not 1-0 Man City and Ronaldo doesn’t score – £25.00 + £21.26 = £3.74 loss

So, as things stand, if Ronaldo scores, we will make a nice profit of £20.01. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £3.74.

By placing an extra lay bet on Cristiano Ronaldo ‘To Score’ at the Betfair Exchange, we can actually guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide £23.75 (amount extracted from refund) by (lay odds – 0.05). So £23.75 divided by 2.45 equals a lay stake of £9.69…

betfair logo

Lay £9.69 on Ronaldo ‘To Score’ @ 2.50 = Potential liability of £14.54

Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

1-0 Man City – £3.74 + £9.21 = £5.47 profit
Not 1-0 Man City and Ronaldo scores £20.01 – £14.54 = £5.47 profit
Not 1-0 Man City and Ronaldo doesn’t score – £3.74 + £9.21 = £5.47 profit

So, regardless of the outcome of the match, we will make a guaranteed profit of £5.47 on this 188BET offer.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘RONALDO25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Tuesday 26th April 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.

* I waited until the starting line-ups were announced before placing my qualifying bets. As Ronaldo was left out of the Real Madrid squad, I opted not to participate in this offer. It’s always a good idea to wait until the starting line-ups are announced before we get involved with these player-specific offers. I’ll add a note to that effect to future blog posts. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.