188BET Offer – Man Utd v Leicester City

Leicester City can clinch the Premier League title with a victory at Old Trafford on Sunday and 188BET are getting in on the action. If Leicester City beat Manchester United, 188BET will refund losing First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams to Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £20.05 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Friday 29th April 2016 and 14:05 on Sunday 1st May 2016 to be eligible.

We need to place our qualifying bet on a selection that doesn’t see Leicester City win the match. This ensures that if Leicester win, we will automatically be eligible for a refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Draw/Draw in the Half-Time/Full-Time market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £21.74…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on Draw/Draw @ 5.20 = Potential profit of £105.00

smarkets whiteLay £21.74 on Draw/Draw @ 6.00 = Potential liability of £108.70

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Draw/Draw + £105.00 – £108.70 = £3.70 loss
Not Draw/Draw and Leicester win – £25.00 + £21.30 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £20.05 profit
Not Draw/Draw and Leicester don’t win – £25.00 + £21.30 = £3.70 loss

So, if Leicester City beat Manchester United, we’ll make a nice profit of £20.05 on this 188BET offer. If they don’t win, we’ll have made a loss of £3.70. Risking £3.70 to make a profit of £20.05, gives us effective odds of 6.42, so given that the odds of Leicester City winning are only 3.55, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘FOXES25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Sunday 1st May 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.