Event Start Time (GMT): 13/08/2017 : 16:00
Man Utd host West Ham in today’s late kick-off and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If Javier Hernandez scores at any time during Man Utd v West Ham, 188BET will refund losing pre-match 1X2, First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £22.87 and here’s how…
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed via mobile between 00:01 on Saturday 12th August 2017 and 16:00 (kick-off) on Sunday 13th August 2017, to be eligible.
Only losing bets are refunded in the event that Javier Hernandez scores, so we need to select something that we don’t think will come in. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a draw in the ‘1X2’ market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they’re charging 0% on all markets this weekend.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.12…
Place £25.00 on a draw @ 5.50 = Potential profit of £112.50
Lay £24.12 on a draw @ 5.70 = Potential liability of £113.36
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Draw||+ £112.50 – £113.36 = £0.86 loss|
|Not a draw and Hernandez scores||- £25.00 + £24.12 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.87 profit|
|Not a draw and Hernandez doesn't score||- £25.00 + £24.12 = £0.88 loss|
So, if the game isn’t drawn and Hernandez scores, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.87. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £0.88. Risking £0.88 to make a profit of £22.87, gives us effective odds of 26.99, so given that the odds of Hernandez scoring are only 3.80, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need either team to win.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘MANUWHAM25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to email@example.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Tuesday 15th August 2017. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.