188BET Offer – Red Card Money Back

There’s a big weekend of Premier League action to look forward to and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a red card is shown in the selected matches this weekend, 188BET will refund losing pre-match mobile bets on all markets on that particular game as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £90.00 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

This offer is available on the following matches…

Fixture Kick-Off Date
Arsenal v Liverpool 19:45 Friday 22nd December 2017
Everton v Chelsea 12:30 Saturday 23rd December 2017
Burnley v Tottenham 17:30 Saturday 23rd December 2017
Leicester v Man Utd 19:45 Saturday 23rd December 2017

Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match via mobile between 00:01 on Monday 18th December 2017 and 19:45 on Saturday 23rd December 2017, to be eligible.

Only losing bets are refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so ideally we need to select something that we don’t think will come in. Having looked at the odds available for Arsenal v Liverpool, we could place our qualifying bet on Liverpool in the ‘Win Draw Win (1X2)’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and if we opt in, they are charging just 2% commission on Premier League Match Odds bets until 3rd January 2018.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.32…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on Liverpool @ 2.84 = Potential profit of £46.00

Betfair logo

Lay £24.32 on Liverpool @ 2.94 = Potential liability of £47.18

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Liverpool win + £46.00 – £47.18 = £1.18 loss
Liverpool don’t win and red card shown – £25.00 + £23.83 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.58 profit
Liverpool don’t win and red card not shown – £25.00 + £23.83 = £1.17 loss

So, if Liverpool don’t win and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.58. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £1.18. Risking £1.18 to make a profit of £22.58, gives us effective odds of 20.14, so given that the odds are only 4.70 for a red card to be shown, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Liverpool not to win.

This offer is available on all four selected matches this weekend. It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bets on but here’s what you could go for…

Fixture Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Qualifying Loss Potential Profit
Arsenal v Liverpool Liverpool 2.84 2.94 £1.17 £22.58
Everton v Chelsea Chelsea 1.66 1.70 £0.80 £22.95
Burnley v Tottenham Draw 4.10 4.30 £1.53 £22.22
Leicester v Man Utd Draw 3.70 3.80 £1.01 £22.73

We should be able to limit our qualifying loss to an average of around £1.20 per match. With a potential profit of around £22.50 on each match, we stand to make an overall potential profit of £90.00 on this 188BET offer.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

Free bets will be credited automatically within 72 hours of settlement of the qualifying bet and a red card being shown in the respective match. Free bets will be valid for 30 days.

* A red card was shown in Leicester v Man Utd, but unfortunately the match was drawn 2-2, resulting in an overall loss of £4.51 on this 188BET offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.