188BET Offer – Red Card Money Back

There’s a big weekend of Premier League football to look forward to and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a red card is shown in any televised Premier League match this weekend, 188BET will refund losing pre-match Win Draw Win (1X2), First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Half-Time/Full-Time mobile bets on that particular game as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £90.00 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

This offer is available on the following televised Premier League matches…

Fixture Kick-Off Date
Liverpool v Man Utd 12:30 Saturday 14th October 2017
Watford v Arsenal 17:30 Saturday 14th October 2017
Brighton v Everton 13:30 Sunday 15th October 2017
Southampton v Newcastle 16:00 Sunday 15th October 2017

Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match via mobile between 00:01 on Friday 13th October 2017 and 16:00 on Sunday 15th October 2017, to be eligible.

Only losing bets are refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so ideally we need to select something that we don’t think will come in. Having looked at the odds available for Liverpool v Man Utd, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss at a minimum by placing my qualifying bet on a draw in the ‘Win Draw Win (1X2)’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.42…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on a draw @ 3.35 = Potential profit of £58.75

Smarkets logo

Lay £24.42 on a draw @ 3.45 = Potential liability of £59.82

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Draw + £58.75 – £59.82 = £1.07 loss
Not a draw and red card shown – £25.00 + £23.93 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.68 profit
Not a draw and red card not shown – £25.00 + £23.93 = £1.07 loss

So, if the game isn’t drawn and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.68. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £1.07. Risking £1.07 to make a profit of £22.68, gives us effective odds of 22.20, so given that the odds are only 3.20 for a red card to be shown, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need either team to win.

This offer is available on all four televised Premier League matches this weekend. I’ll update the following table with my selections throughout the weekend…

Fixture Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Qualifying Loss Potential Profit
Liverpool v Man Utd Draw 3.35 3.45 £1.07 £22.68
Watford v Arsenal Arsenal 1.66 1.68 £0.50 £23.25
Brighton v Everton Draw 3.20 3.30 £1.09 £22.65
Southampton v Newcastle Southampton 1.84 1.89 £0.90 £22.85

We should be able to limit our qualifying loss to around £1.00 on each match. With a potential profit of around £22.50 on each match, we stand to make an overall potential profit of £90.00 on this 188BET offer.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘REDOCTOBER2’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188bet.co.uk using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Tuesday 17th October 2017. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.

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Leave me a comment below…

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.