188BET Offer – Red Card Money Back

There’s a big weekend of Premier League and Championship football to look forward to and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a red card is shown in any televised match this weekend, 188BET will refund losing pre-match Win Draw Win (1X2), First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Half-Time/Full-Time mobile bets on that particular game as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £112.50 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

This offer is available on the following televised Premier League and Championship matches…

Fixture Kick-Off Date
Leeds v Sheffield United 19:45 Friday 27th October 2017
Man Utd v Tottenham 12:30 Saturday 28th October 2017
Bournemouth v Chelsea 17:30 Saturday 28th October 2017
Brighton v Southampton 13:30 Sunday 29th October 2017
Leicester v Everton 16:00 Sunday 29th October 2017

Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match via mobile between 00:01 on Monday 23rd October 2017 and 16:00 on Sunday 29th October 2017, to be eligible.

Only losing bets are refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so ideally we need to select something that we don’t think will come in. Having looked at the odds available for Leeds v Sheffield United, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss at a minimum by placing my qualifying bet on Sheffield United in the ‘Win Draw Win (1X2)’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.05…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on Sheffield United @ 3.30 = Potential profit of £57.50

Smarkets logo

Lay £24.05 on Sheffield United @ 3.45 = Potential liability of £58.92

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Sheffield United win + £57.50 – £58.92 = £1.42 loss
Sheffield United don’t win and red card shown – £25.00 + £23.56 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.31 profit
Sheffield United don’t win and red card not shown – £25.00 + £23.56 = £1.44 loss

So, if Sheffield United don’t win and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.31. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £1.44. Risking £1.44 to make a profit of £22.31, gives us effective odds of 16.49, so given that the odds are only 4.70 for a red card to be shown, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Sheffield United not to win.

This offer is available on all five televised matches this weekend. It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bets on but here’s what I’ll be going for…

Fixture Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Qualifying Loss Potential Profit
Leeds v Sheffield United Sheffield United 3.30 3.45 £1.42 £22.31
Man Utd v Tottenham Man Utd 2.20 2.26 £0.93 £22.80
Bournemouth v Chelsea Chelsea 1.63 1.67 £0.79 £22.95
Brighton v Southampton Draw 3.20 3.30 £1.09 £22.65
Leicester v Everton Leicester 2.16 2.20 £0.72 £23.02

We should be able to limit our qualifying loss to around £1.00 on each match. With a potential profit of around £22.50 on each match, we stand to make an overall potential profit of £112.50 on this 188BET offer.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘REDOCTOBER4’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188bet.co.uk using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Tuesday 31st October 2017. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.

* No red cards were shown in any of the five matches, meaning I made an overall loss of £4.95 on this 188BET offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.