188BET Offer – Red Card Money Back

There’s a big weekend of Premier League football to look forward to and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a red card is shown in any televised Premier League match this weekend, 188BET will refund losing pre-match mobile bets on all markets on that particular game as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £112.50 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

This offer is available on the following televised Premier League matches…

Fixture Kick-Off Date
Stoke v Leicester 12:30 Saturday 4th November 2017
West Ham v Liverpool 17:30 Saturday 4th November 2017
Tottenham v Crystal Palace 12:00 Sunday 5th November 2017
Man City v Arsenal 14:15 Sunday 5th November 2017
Chelsea v Man Utd 16:30 Sunday 5th November 2017

Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match via mobile between 00:01 on Monday 30th October 2017 and 16:00 on Sunday 5th November 2017, to be eligible.

Only losing bets are refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so ideally we need to select something that we don’t think will come in. Having looked at the odds available for Stoke v Leicester, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss at a minimum by placing my qualifying bet on Leicester in the ‘Win Draw Win (1X2)’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and if we opt in, they will only charge 2% commission on Premier League Match Odds bets throughout November 2017.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.31…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on Leicester @ 2.80 = Potential profit of £45.00

Betfair logo

Lay £24.31 on Leicester @ 2.90 = Potential liability of £46.18

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Leicester win + £45.00 – £46.18 = £1.18 loss
Leicester don’t win and red card shown – £25.00 + £23.82 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.57 profit
Leicester don’t win and red card not shown – £25.00 + £23.82 = £1.18 loss

So, if Leicester don’t win and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.57. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £1.18. Risking £1.18 to make a profit of £22.57, gives us effective odds of 20.13, so given that the odds are only 4.20 for a red card to be shown, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Leicester not to win.

This offer is available on all five televised Premier League matches this weekend. It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bets on but here’s what you could go for…

Fixture Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Qualifying Loss Potential Profit
Stoke v Leicester Leicester 2.80 2.90 £1.18 £22.57
West Ham v Liverpool Draw 4.30 4.40 £0.96 £22.79
Tottenham v Crystal Palace Tottenham 1.29 1.31 £0.50 £23.25
Man City v Arsenal Man City 1.45 1.46 £0.32 £23.41
Chelsea v Man Utd Draw 3.20 3.30 £1.10 £22.65

We should be able to limit our qualifying loss to an average of around £0.80 per match. With a potential profit of around £22.50 on each match, we stand to make an overall potential profit of £112.50 on this 188BET offer.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘REDCARDREFUND1’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188bet.co.uk using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Tuesday 7th November 2017. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.

* No red cards were shown in any of the five televised matches, resulting in an overall loss of £4.06 on this 188BET offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.