188BET Offer – Southampton v Arsenal

Southampton host Arsenal in today’s late kick-off and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a red card is shown at any time during Southampton v Arsenal, 188BET will refund losing pre-match 1×2, First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams To Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £22.70 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Friday 27th January 2017 and 17:30 (kick-off) on Saturday 28th January 2017 to be eligible.

There is no way of making this offer risk-free so only get involved if you’re comfortable with your qualifying loss.

Only losing bets will be refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so ideally, we need to place our qualifying bet on a selection that we don’t think will win. We also need to place it at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss.

It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss at a minimum by placing my qualifying bet on Arsenal in the ‘1 X 2’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.44…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on Arsenal @ 2.17 = Potential profit of £29.25

smarkets whiteLay £24.44 on Arsenal @ 2.24 = Potential liability of £30.30

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Arsenal win + £29.25 – £30.30 = £1.05 loss
Arsenal don’t win and a red card is shown – £25.00 + £23.95 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.70 profit
Arsenal don’t win and no red card is shown – £25.00 + £23.95 = £1.05 loss

So, if Arsenal don’t win and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.70. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £1.05. Risking £1.05 to make a profit of £22.70, gives us effective odds of 22.62, so given that the odds of a red card being shown are only 4.75, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Arsenal not to win.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘SA25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188bet.co.uk using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Sunday 29th January 2017. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.