188BET Offer – Sunday Red Card Money Back

There are two huge derby’s to look forward to on Sunday and 188BET are getting in on the action. If a red card is shown at any time during Newcastle v Sunderland or Manchester City v Manchester United, 188BET will refund losing First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Double Result and Both Teams to Score bets on that match, as a free bet, up to a maximum of £188.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £163.21 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

This offer is available on the following matches…

Fixture Kick-Off Date
Newcastle v Sunderland 13:30 Sunday 20th March
Man City v Man Utd 16:00 Sunday 20th March

Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match and we are only eligible to claim one refund. That means if we claim a refund on the Newcastle v Sunderland game, we won’t be able to then claim another one on the Manchester City v Manchester United game.

There is no way of making this offer risk-free, so we need to place our qualifying bets at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying losses.

It’s entirely up to you, what you place your qualifying bet on but having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £176.14…

188BET logo

Place £188.00 on ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’ @ 1.93 = Potential profit of £174.84

smarkets whiteLay £176.14 on ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’ @ 2.08 = Potential liability of £190.23

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Someone doesn’t concede a goal + £174.84 – £190.23 = £15.39 loss
Both teams score and there’s a red card – £188.00 + £172.61 + £178.60 (extract 95% from our £188.00 stake refund) = £163.21 profit
Both teams score and there’s no red card – £188.00 + £172.61 = £15.39 loss

So, if both teams score and there’s a red card shown, we will make a huge profit of £163.21 on this 188BET offer. If there’s no red card shown or someone doesn’t concede a goal, we’ll have made a loss of £15.39 and we can try again on the Manchester City v Manchester United match. Risking £15.39 to make a profit of £163.21, gives us effective odds of 11.60, so given that the odds of a red card being shown are only 3.00, this is a very profitable offer in the long run.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £188.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘REDSUNDAY188’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Monday 21st March 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.

I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selections after the matches have been played.

* There was no red card shown in the Newcastle v Sunderland game, so I had another go on the Manchester City v Manchester United game. I placed my qualifying bet on ‘Both Teams to Score – YES’ at back odds of 1.84 and lay odds of 1.93. Again, there was no red card shown, meaning I made a total loss of £25.90 on this 188BET offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.